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good
@thenarrator
prediction markets, perps and brain dumping / research @schemacap, building @rallypadfun
Joined September 2016
3.7K Following    100.8K Followers
one of the more interesting new primitives i’ve seen is @perpdotcity turning live data feeds into perpetual markets prediction markets work well when something eventually resolves yes or no, but most of the world doesn’t move like that shipping traffic, power prices, company revenue and compute demand are constantly changing they already have a perp tracking the number of cargo ships and tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, updated every 15 minutes using live AIS data so instead of betting on whether the strait closes by a certain date, you can trade the actual flow of traffic as sanctions, convoys and geopolitical risk change it this is basically financializing the rate at which reality is moving if the data is reliable and liquidity comes, every valuable information stream becomes its own market feels like one of those ideas that looks niche until there are thousands of them
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