BofA warns that the credit party is ending as inflows turn to outflows due to soaring rates.
"Rates market jitters are having a direct impact on flow strength into bond markets. Last week, government bond, money market and high-yield funds recorded outflows. While inflows into high-grade funds resumed, we are sceptical at the current juncture that this will continue in a world of a higher rates vol backdrop. We note that while rates vol declined last week, it has moved notably higher over the past couple of days. We cannot see such a development as a tailwind for flows into credit funds. Rates vol at current levels of c.90pts (for SMOVEU3M index) is not supportive for flows into riskier assets like credit vis-à-vis flows into "risk-free" proxies such as government deb." - BofA Ioannis Angelakis
In a world where IG (and increasingly HY) funds half of AI capex, this is a problem.
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BofA downgraded $NKE to Underperform, cutting its price target to $30 from $47.
The firm says Nike’s innovation continues to be overshadowed by pressure on its classics business. It now expects sales declines through FY27, versus its earlier expectation for a spring recovery.
BofA cut FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates by 11% and 12%, respectively, putting its FY27 estimate 14% below consensus.
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BofA is modeling 5-6GW of owned-capacity deployments for Meta $META in 2027 at a cost of $200 billion, with its custom silicon push expected to save Meta roughly $8.5 billion.
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BOFA RAISES 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TARGET TO 5%
Bank of America raised its year-end U.S. 10-year yield forecast to 5.0% from 4.5%, citing fiscal concerns and broader market risks.
The bank also lifted its 2-year yield forecast to 5.0%.
BofA sees risks from Iran, fiscal pressures, trade tensions and AI uncertainty, while also raising its H2 Brent oil forecast to $95 per barrel.
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BOFA'S CO-PRES DEMARE: CONTINUED STRENGTH IN MACROECONOMIC BACKDROP
*BOFA'S DEMARE: 3Q WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST IN MARKETS AS 2Q WAS
BofA's Co-Pres Demare: Q3 Will Not Be As Robust In Markets As Q2 Was
BOFA'S DEMARE: 3Q WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST IN MARKETS AS 2Q WAS
BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH EXPECTS BOE TO HIKE INTEREST RATES BY 25 BP IN NOVEMBER 2026 AND FEBRUARY 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF RATES UNCHANGED UNTIL A CUT IN NOVEMBER 2027
BofA: expect U.S. top hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Alphabet) to grow cloud revenue to $975 billion in 2028, up from $290 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, China's top hyperscalers (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Baidu) cloud revenue to increase to $94 billion, up from $28 billion.
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