🎙️ NEW EPISODE: Intel's Earnings Disaster: Bad Luck, Bad Planning, or Both? Intel had a strong quarter. Its outlook told a different story. @vikramskr and @austinsemis unpack Intel’s Q3 2026 results and the gap between demand for its chips and its ability to deliver them. They cover the AI memory squeeze hitting PCs, the substrate and chiplet bottlenecks limiting server CPUs, and the fallout from the Fab 28 accident. Then they debate what Intel could have done differently and whether its long-term foundry story still holds. Presented by @CrusoeAI: Fine-tune and serve open models without managing a single GPU. When we sat down with Crusoe’s product team, Austin asked: what will you do with my data? Their answer: They don’t touch or see it. Your training data is encrypted so even Crusoe’s own admins can’t see it, and the fine-tuned model is yours. Deploy on Crusoe in one click, or download and run it anywhere. Upload a dataset, pick an open model, and pay per token rather than per GPU hour. Run a few versions, compare them, and download the one that works best. Accounts are free, and get $5 in credit when you sign up. Try Serverless Fine-Tuning: This episode is supported by @meter. You have the GPUs and the power. Now who builds the network, and who do you call when it breaks? Meter designs, deploys, and runs frontend, storage, and management networks on its own switches and its own network OS. One call reaches the team that designed the hardware and wrote the software. Chapters: 0:00 Intel's 35% Stock Drop 1:22 The Pre-Earnings Bull Case 4:03 Reason 1: Weak PC Market 12:25 The Flawed Q2 Pivot Plan 17:17 The IDM Model's Failure 20:23 Reason 2: Substrate Bottleneck 23:18 Chiplet Design's Fragility 25:18 Reason 3: The Fab 28 Explosion 40:46 The GPU Intelligence Gap 45:51 The Foundry Thesis Question 50:22 Packaging as a Hope Story 51:19 Four Lessons from the Meltdown Get more of Austin and Vik daily, free! Sign up: Connect with Vik and Austin: Vik's Paid Substack: Austin's Paid Substack: @austinsemis @vikramskr

A Taiwanese media report says NVIDIA may cut its orders with TSMC. If that happens, AMD and ASIC chipmakers could pick up some of the wafer capacity currently allocated to NVIDIA. I’ve heard similar rumors. I’ll let you know as soon as I can confirm them.

Summary of Views on Space Computing •We expect ~5GW space compute capacity by 2028 via ~10k Kessel racks (supply chain ramp 2H27–2028) for SpaceX Space Computing. •Kessel = compact NVL72: 72 Rubin GPUs at ~4,000W TDP each!!!
→ Peak rack power 350–400kW (avg ~280kW for inference)
→ Compressed from conventional 48U into 9U low-and-fat design •Next-gen AI satellite solar likely be upgraded to 350–400kW peak compute (up from AI1’s 210kW solar / 250kW peak) •Hardware: ~60-layer PCB midplane + Amphenol Paladin connectors + PTFE + M9 hybrid (TLPS)
→ Midplane ASP >$20k
→ Single-loop liquid cooling to external radiators •Launch support: 4 operational Starship pads by end-2027 + twice-weekly launches targeted in 2H27 📈 Supply chain: 1) Hon Hai sole assembler; 2) AVC cold plates for the ultra high TDP; 3) Taiflex/EMC for PTFE & M9 CCL; 4) Fositek >50% QD share; 5) Solar Power supply chain: Brave C&H Supply (6538 TT), TSEC (6443 TT) #space# #emc# #nvda# #avc# #PCb# #solar#

Wow, didn’t expect my Sunday to go like this. There’s a lot of hysteria on X right now. Stacy Rasgon @Srasgon has covered NVIDIA for years and understands the company. He’s a voice of reason amid a lot of armchair commentary from people who don’t. In his new note from today, “NVIDIA: Stirring the (honey)pot?”, he says the situation could create political and regulatory noise, and the overhang may stick around. But he doesn’t expect it to materially change demand for NVIDIA’s products. A headline can create uncertainty without changing what customers are buying or the long-term demand for compute. Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $400 price target.

President Trump reveals the DOJ warned the head of a major AI company "get ready to go to jail, please give your wife a kiss goodnight...do you like the color orange?" Asked why he isn’t worried that AI builders say there’s a 10% chance it kills humanity: TRUMP: “The DOJ. We had a situation where somebody was reported to us to be doing something bad with AI. We called them very strongly and said, get ready to go to jail. Please give your wife a kiss goodnight.” Interviewer: “Who was this person?” TRUMP: “I can’t tell you.” Interviewer: “Or this company?” TRUMP: “I can’t tell you. But we said, do you like the color orange? Because get rid. It said, go home right now. See your wife and children. Give them a kiss. Good night. And that’s the story.” Interviewer: “If the Democrats wanted...” TRUMP: “Because tomorrow morning you’re going to jail.” Interviewer: “If they wanted to make a deal to put that to...” TRUMP: “Let me tell you, this person totally changed everything. Totally. Yes, sir. Yes, sir.” Interviewer: “Was it a leader of a major AI company?” TRUMP: “One of the big ones, yeah.” Interviewer: “Okay.” TRUMP: “One of the big ones.”

President Donald Trump on Jensen Huang's relationship with a Chinese spy: "I have not spoken to him about it, I just know he's a fine person. You never know what's going on. I hope everything's fine, he's done such an incredible job. He's a fine person in my opinion." "I think he's an honorable guy, I think he probably has an excuse for it. You have to hear it. He's done an amazing job for the country." Via @FoxNews $NVDA

NIKKEI: ELON MUSK’S TERAFAB HAS TOLD SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS IT IS TARGETING A PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF 1 MILLION WAFERS PER MONTH FROM 2032 ONWARD. OF THAT TOTAL, 700,000 WAFERS PER MONTH WOULD BE ALLOCATED TO MEMORY CHIPS AND 300,000 TO LOGIC CHIPS. WTF? 700kwpm for memory??