BofA sees a multi-year memory super-cycle extending through 2028, with market revenue reaching $0.97T in '26, $1.47T in '27, and $1.58T in '28.
Strong ASPs, stable contract prices, and high bit growth are expected to yield a 2028 soft landing, with DRAM revenue up 10% and NAND revenue up 3% YoY.
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BofA mentioned their investors meeting in HK reflected a more bearish sentiment towards memory compared to August/September, with most investors stating it's hard to find new catalysts that would surprise the market.
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BofA on the impact of blue wave on data center buildout:
"While tighter permitting, an expansion of state-by-state restrictions and higher costs could elongate project timelines, we view this as a supply/timing issue, not a demand issue. Compute needs still have to be met, with development potentially shifting toward more accommodating U.S. States or even internationally (e.g. Google’s recent $15bn expansion to Malaysia)."
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BofA: consensus for eight US hyperscalers/neoclouds has FCF burn worsening to $335 billion, or 13% of sales, in CY27E from $128 billion, or 6%, in CY26E.
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