OpenAI /
@sama at MS TMT:
Scaling + progress: “Most important thing to know is we have been on accelerating exponential of progress; been on it much longer than 3 years; since 2019 - reason it is accelerating is algorithmic, compute, more smart ppl working on it, more economic input letting us buying GPUs faster; these are compounding exponentials… does not seem the exponential is stopping anytime soon… end of 2028, maybe sooner, will likely be more intellectual capacity inside data centers than outside of them”
Codex / evolution of SWE: 2M+ users growing 25% per week. “Seeing teams of 5 ppl / 1 person + tens / hundreds / thousands of GPUs doing work of entire company engineering department. Codex can write large and complex code but now also do things like chip design where it is super human…” software engineer is now “manager of agents”
Scientific discovery + new research: “Seeing beginning of AI discovering new science - still small but seeing early signs across mathematics, theoretical physics…" Models are not just learning distribution of data, we are "teaching them generalized ability to think and understand data and in general purpose way, how to reason about what comes next. It appears models have crossed this threshold and can make discoveries."
Company of the future: “We will all want person making final decisions for accountability of company for a long time…" but "AI CEO can [talk to every person at company, be in every meeting, customer call, be an expert in every function]. The % of decisions relied on AI will go up [at your company] or a competitor who does rely more on AI will rise up.”
Capital raise + strategic partnerships: “NVDA we have partnered with for decade - continue to lead with best chips. All training on NVDA. With partnership we get allocation to new chips we are excited about. AMZN we will take some Trainium in 2027 and 2028 which will further help us meet inference demand. Will work with them to distribute stable runtime environment for agents in the enterprise”
Defense + government: "Really love and support our country, AI will be be important to defense" Did not rush into military work on classified networks but believes it's critical. "If I were running military and gov and had a bunch of AI companies saying we are about to build super intelligence which will be important for geopolitical power, but we are going to stop working with you - I would say (i) I need that tech and (ii) gov supposed to be more powerful than private companies." OAI effort was to de-escalate. DoW "very understanding and great partner" on red-lines re survelliance and autonomous weapons. Will deploy FDEs with clearance to make sure tech properly used.
Three flash points of superintelligence: "(1) Are the companies developing AI or is the government more powerful? (2) How do you reconfigure economy when no one can outwork a GPU? (3) Who gets to decide the values we align superintelligence to? Have seen beginning of #
1# - we believe we need to trust in democratic process which has gotten us so far over last 250 years”
What people misunderstand about AI: "In general, I have found that the smarter someone is, the more they want to believe AI is going to hit a wall. Basis of this psychological flaw is understandable, the more you define yourself by intelligence, the more you are incentivized to say it can't do this."
AI-native competition + adoption urgency: Companies used to only compete with competitors who adopted slowly too / they had same constraints like a “slow security org”. "Now you have to compete with not only current competitors but new companies that are mostly AI that do not have slow security org… “Next year I predict we'll talk about companies with 1/10th or 1/100th of the people and a ton of GPUs building entirely new types of competitors.”