MS Hwang from Counterpoint Research believes YMTC could reach 18% global NAND market share in 2028. > 2028 could be an inflection point in pricing dynamic > Demand is expected to remain stable through 2028 due to AI-driven growth > Chinese firms are increasing their tool localization rate $SNDK $EWY $DRAM $DISK

SK hynix sharply raises share of leading edge DRAM… 1c to become main process early next year SK hynix is rapidly expanding the production share of its sixth generation 10nm class (1c) DRAM. With 1c DRAM set to serve as the core die stacked into next generation high bandwidth memory (HBM4E), the company appears to be accelerating its process transition. As demand for high value added memory for servers and artificial intelligence (AI) grows, the race with Samsung Electronics and Micron to migrate to finer process nodes is also heating up. "1c process share expected to exceed 34% within the year" According to industry sources on the 7th, SK hynix's 1c DRAM share rose from around 10% in the first quarter of this year to the 13% range in the second quarter. It is projected to reach the 24% range in the third quarter and the 34% range in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of next year, the 1c share is expected to climb to the 35% range, overtaking 1b (33% range) for the first time and becoming the company's main process. The share of 1b (fifth generation 10nm class) DRAM was found to have peaked at the 43% range in the second quarter of this year and turned downward. As the production shift to 1c gets into full swing, the share of older generation processes is shrinking in sequence. Industry estimates show that, as of the end of the second quarter, Samsung Electronics' 1c share stood in the 16% range and Micron's in the 19% range, somewhat ahead of SK hynix (13% range). However, with SK hynix stepping up the pace of its transition in the second half of this year, it is expected to overtake Samsung Electronics (31% range) on a fourth quarter basis (34% range). On its second quarter earnings conference call last month, SK hynix said that supply of DRAM built on the sixth generation 10nm class (1c) process had begun in earnest in the second quarter. The company projected that bit growth (the rate of increase in production volume) in the second half of this year would exceed the first half, driven by expanding HBM4 (sixth generation HBM) volumes and rising shipments of 1c based commodity DRAM. Process transition in preparation for HBM4E performance gains The battle for HBM4 leadership between Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is also intertwined with the pace of the 1c transition. Samsung Electronics is applying 1c DRAM from the HBM4 stage onward and is touting top tier performance with operating speeds of around 11.7Gbps. SK hynix, by contrast, chose a strategy that prioritizes mass production stability, relying on its proven 1b DRAM and advanced MR-MUF packaging technology, and is applying 1c DRAM as the core HBM die for the first time starting with next generation HBM4E (seventh generation HBM). Industry observers say this difference in strategy is being reflected in the two companies' market shares. Major research firms including Counterpoint Research project this year's HBM4 market share, on a combined basis across NVIDIA, Google, AMD and others, at the mid 50% range for SK hynix, the high 20% range for Samsung Electronics, and the high 10% range for Micron. The picture is one in which SK hynix holds its volume advantage on the strength of mass production stability, while Samsung Electronics seeks to expand share through a technical spec advantage. Against this backdrop, analysts say SK hynix's push to speed up the 1c transition will translate into tangible benefits in cost and productivity, beyond simply shrinking the node. Since bit output per wafer rises compared with the previous generation, more bits are produced from the same wafer input, improving cost competitiveness, which is cited as a factor that will help defend DRAM segment profitability from the second half onward. With the 1c transition proceeding alongside a growing mix of high value added products for servers and HBM, analysts say productivity gains are highly likely to feed directly into margin improvement. An official in the semiconductor industry said, "The pace of the 1c transition itself is encouraging, but it only becomes meaningful if actual production yields and customer qualification schedules back it up," adding, "Starting with HBM4E, the fine process competition between Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will intensify further."

MICRON TO DOUBLE HBM PRODUCTION CAPACITY, NARROWING GAP WITH SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX U.S. memory maker Micron plans to double its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production capacity from last year. Through aggressive capital spending by year-end, the company aims to strengthen its supply capabilities for 12-high HBM4, the latest generation of HBM. The move is intended to increase its market share by expanding its HBM capacity, which currently trails that of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. According to industry sources on September 3, Micron plans to add up to 60,000 wafers per month of HBM production capacity by the end of this year. The net addition would exceed the company’s HBM production level of roughly 40,000–50,000 wafers per month last year. “Micron is making substantial investments in equipment to rapidly ramp up its HBM4 production capacity,” said an industry source familiar with the matter. “By the end of this year, it will have secured HBM production capacity of approximately 100,000 wafers per month.” To achieve this expansion, Micron is increasing purchase orders (POs) with multiple HBM equipment suppliers. Equipment deliveries are understood to be ongoing at its HBM manufacturing sites in Taiwan and Singapore. The share of 12-high HBM4 in Micron’s production mix is expected to rise significantly. Currently, 12-high HBM3E accounts for most of its HBM output. As recently as early this year, 12-high HBM4 represented only 20–30% of the total, but that share is reportedly set to reach as much as 50% by year-end. Twelve-high HBM4 will be used in Vera Rubin, the latest AI accelerator from NVIDIA, the world’s largest AI chip company. Micron began mass production of its 12-high HBM4 products in the second quarter of this year. During Micron’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings announcement in June, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said, “We are ramping up 12-high HBM4 production at roughly twice the pace of 12-high HBM3E,” adding that “cumulative revenue from HBM4 shipments has exceeded $1 billion.” Although Micron is one of the world’s three major HBM manufacturers, its production capacity falls short of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Industry estimates put each Korean company’s HBM capacity at approximately 150,000–200,000 wafers per month—three to four times Micron’s level. Unless Micron catches up with their production capacity, it will struggle to escape its position as a perennial third-place player. If Micron meets its capacity target this year, it could roughly halve its production gap with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Micron’s HBM capacity expansion also underscores the strength of demand for AI memory. Supply continues to fall short of demand as AI chipmakers, led by NVIDIA, seek large volumes of HBM. In this environment, maximizing HBM earnings requires the ability to supply more products—in other words, sufficient production capacity. Micron is investing in HBM manufacturing facilities around the world. In addition to its investments in the United States, the company carries out HBM packaging at its Tongluo fab in Taiwan and Woodlands fab in Singapore, and is preparing equipment investments in Hiroshima, Japan. According to Counterpoint Research, SK hynix led the global HBM market with a 50% share in the second quarter of this year, followed by Samsung Electronics at 32% and Micron at 18%. $MU