During a Q&A with Samsung executives, Sam Altman addressed concerns about a bubble in the neocloud sector, saying, “There has been some double counting of demand.” Asked whether demand for AI, memory chips, and data centers could level off or grow more slowly over the next five to ten years, he replied, “There are ups and downs in the short term.” “OpenAI and Anthropic are the only two companies really driving substantial growth in demand, so we could see a supply shock and a period of turbulence,” Altman said.

Interesting remarks Anthropic made in a meeting with the sell side: - Anthropic has the stability and the better talent that open source lacks. - The AI market is winner take all. As long as we execute properly, we will take all of it. - The contract with SpaceX will not be extended beyond the middle of next year. - Developing Opus 5.5 cost more than $10 billion.

Industry reality check on NVIDIA Rubin’s high-speed laminate allocation: Rumors around resin formulation tweaks and recipe adjustments miss the macro hardware picture: 1️⃣ EMC share expansion is inevitable: Superior lot-to-lot consistency and proven shop-floor yield stability are an open secret. As Rubin pushes signal margins to theoretical limits, the halo platform defaults to the lowest-risk substrate. EMC captures the initial volume spike. 2️⃣ Shengyi Technology will return: Formulation hiccups are par for the course on frontier nodes. Once adjustments clear shop-floor tuning, Shengyi’s scale cost economics bring them back into rotation. 3️⃣ The upstream constraint rule: Upstream bottlenecks—from specialized glass weaves to ultra-low profile foils—remain far tighter than downstream processing. In an era of structural material deficits, hyperscalers cannot afford to sideline an established volume pillar. Allocation shifts are cyclical; ecosystem dual-sourcing is permanent. ⚡️📊 #NVIDIA# #Rubin# #PCB# #CCL# #EMC# #Shengyi# #SupplyChain# #Hardware# #Semiconductors#

What Anthropic's S-1 discloses about its expensive short term chip rentals (aimed at SpaceX) - Most compute is secured 12 to 18 months in advance under multiyear contracts. When customer or research demand exceeds that capacity, the company buys short term compute, which "currently" costs "significantly more" than comparable compute under multiyear contracts. - The scale was $5.0 billion in Q3 and $6.5 billion over the first nine months. - Operating income of $970 million in Q2 turned into an operating loss of $570 million in Q3. The company attributes this to $5.0 billion of short term compute and $2.0 billion of noncash donation matching charges. - Use of short term compute will keep increasing in the near term, and operating margin will be compressed as a result. - As of the end of September, minimum payments under short term contracts (cancelable without penalty within one year, or with a remaining term of one year or less) were about $17.4 billion. About $6.6 billion more has been signed since October. - Once Anthropic Direct, under which the company leases chips directly and hosts them in dedicated data centers, comes online, the company will replace the short term compute bought during demand surges with cheaper long term compute. Interpretation: - Excluding short term capacity, Q3 compute cost was $4.86 billion, below the Q2 total of $5.56 billion. Long term contracted capacity barely grew in Q3. In effect, the $5.4 billion increase in revenue was served with short term capacity. - Revenue per dollar of compute fell from $2.08 in Q2 to $1.72 in Q3. The company also notes that this metric declined from the prior quarter. - The $17.4 billion short term contract balance plus the $6.6 billion of new contracts comes to $24.0 billion, about one third of the $70.7 billion due over the next 12 months. More than the Q3 pace ($5.0 billion a quarter) is already under contract. Question: Will Anthropic keep paying SpaceX a huge premium after March 2027? Source: Anthropic’s S-1 filing

Samsung aims to complete development of 3D Cube-H, its hybrid bonding technology for 3D logic chips, by early next year, according to Korean media reports. The technology is primarily intended for ultra-high-performance AI chips. Korean media said that if Samsung succeeds, it could strengthen its competitive position in next-generation AI chips and lay the groundwork for winning Big Tech customers for its foundry business.

A Taiwanese media report says NVIDIA may cut its orders with TSMC. If that happens, AMD and ASIC chipmakers could pick up some of the wafer capacity currently allocated to NVIDIA. I’ve heard similar rumors. I’ll let you know as soon as I can confirm them.

"We expect ~5GW space compute capacity by 2028 via ~10k Kessel racks (supply chain ramp 2H27–2028) for SpaceX Space Computing." GFHK’s numbers are way higher than Funda’s… 5 GW of data center capacity in space?? By 2028?

What’s even more surprising is that the White House itself reportedly asked Congress to include a provision in the bill requiring the Commerce Department to issue rules blocking remote access to certain chips. That’s a shift in the White House’s position. If that provision passes, GPU spot prices could take a hit, too.

According to The Information, NVIDIA has long lobbied hard against proposals to restrict Chinese companies’ access to its latest chips through overseas cloud providers. But since the scandal surrounding Jensen Huang broke, that lobbying appears to carry less weight in Washington. The fallout has reportedly made it easier to advance three bills. The MATCH Act would restrict shipments of lithography equipment to China. The Overwatch Act would give Congress greater oversight of the Commerce Department’s decisions to approve AI chip sales to countries such as China. The Chip Security Act would require AI chips to have built-in tracking capabilities. The National Defense Authorization Act is expected to pass before the new Democratic-led Congress convenes in January. That gives Republican leaders an incentive to help move the legislation forward now, while they still have more say over what goes into the final bill.

Jukan Terminal: Lam Research could have to pay Samsung around ₩1 trillion in damages over the alleged leak at its Korean unit. Jukan Terminal: Samsung is weighing what action to take against Lam Research.