AI and robotics could boost productivity and become a deflationary force over the coming years, Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund tells Lisa Abramowics and Annmarie Hordern 

The AI boom is transforming one of the biggest deflationary forces into a key source of US inflation: Import prices for computer and electronic products surged +7.4% in the first 6 months of 2026, to 77.1 points, the highest since January 2016. This also marks a +8.0% YoY jump, the largest annual increase on record. This represents a historic reversal from a downtrend which persisted for over two decades. Between 2006 and 2019, computer and electronic product import prices fell -30%, as improving technology and manufacturing efficiency consistently pushed costs lower. Now, the AI investment boom is straining manufacturing capacity for semiconductors, servers, and electronic components, as companies race to build out AI infrastructure regardless of cost. The AI revolution has flipped technology from a long-term source of deflation into a major driver of inflation.

Sonic Says Early VI Revenue Generated ~400% More Deflationary Impact Than Fee Burns Sonic Labs said revenue generated through its Vertical Integration (VI) model produced roughly 400% more deflationary impact than fee-related burns since March 1. Revenue from products including USSD and Metropolis vaults generated the equivalent of 295,454.55 S during the period, compared with 59,786.728 S burned through transaction fees and FeeM-related burns.

Truflation now above 2%. This chart shows the rotation from deflationary risks to inflationary risks in the first 5 months of the year. Inflation wouldn't have been a concern if the Iran war was short-lived, but we may be past the point of no return now.

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Kevin Warsh's view is clear: AI will eventually force interest rates lower because it will be highly deflationary. "AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We're at the front end of a productivity boom." The problem is that today's economy is telling a different story. Inflation is at 4.2%, its highest level in three years. Tensions with Iran continue to threaten oil supplies. The labor market remains strong. AI may be deflationary in the long run, but the Fed has to deal with today's inflation first. I don't expect a single rate cut before the end of 2026.

VVV emissions are being reduced from 3M per year to 2M per year. This will occur in two stages: 1. September 1st: 2.5M VVV/year 2. October 1st: 2M VVV/year On the road to a net deflationary VVV with native yield through lower emissions and increasing burns.