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Nomura: EML & CW material and equipment value chain $AXTI $COHR $LITE $ASML $AMAT $LRCX
Tldr on the breadth of $LITE products > EML lasers - scale-out pluggables These are the lasers inside many 800G/1.6T optical transceivers connecting switches and servers across large AI clusters. As bandwidth moves higher, you need more high-speed optical lanes. Lumentum is one of the major suppliers of the lasers enabling them. > CW lasers - silicon photonics light source Silicon photonics chips manipulate the light and the cw is the source. These can feed silicon photonics in traditional optical modules today and increasingly NPO/CPO architectures going forward. > Ultra-high-power external lasers - CPO + NPO When the optical engine moves right next to an XPU or switch ASIC, heat becomes a huge issue. One solution is to move the laser OUTSIDE the package. Lumentum supplies the high-power external light source and sends the light into the optical engines. $LITE says essentially all CPO uses an external light source, while a meaningful portion of NPO is moving this direction too. > OCS - Optical Circuit Switching Instead of converting traffic from optical → electrical → optical every time you want to change its path, an OCS can physically redirect the light itself. Fiber comes in → tiny mirrors redirect the beam → fiber goes out. That can reduce power and create much more flexible AI clusters. Lumentum says customer engagement here has expanded well beyond what it originally expected. > Pump + narrow-linewidth lasers - scale-across As AI campuses spread across multiple buildings or data centers, coherent optics become increasingly important. Those coherent systems need pump lasers and narrow-linewidth lasers. Lumentum says it expects roughly a 4x increase in pump-laser volumes over the next five quarters. And eventually… Scale-in → even more optics moving toward the compute package
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TFW institutions realize how important $SIVE is in the CW/EML laser bottleneck. But have no positions… Sivers is up 220%+ so far, but I expect this to be my next personal 10x like $AXTI.
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Inside the 'summer camp' training rabbis how to use firearms
Lumentum taking shots at Coherent at Deutsche Bank conference. How is the yield of 200G EML on 6inch InP Jim Anderson? SPEED AND POWER LEVEL OF INP DEVICE MATTERS. EVERYONE KNOWS YOUR YIELD IS DOGSHIT.
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