TFW institutions realize how important $SIVE is in the CW/EML laser bottleneck. But have no positions… Sivers is up 220%+ so far, but I expect this to be my next personal 10x like $AXTI.

$LITE reports fiscal Q4 after the close today. As AI data-center networks push toward 1.6T and 3.2T, Lumentum's lead in photonics and lasers is the story — a richer mix of high-margin EML chips is expected to lift gross margin toward ~49%. The tell for a beat sits upstream. Indium phosphide (InP), the core substrate for high-end EML and silicon-photonics lasers, is seeing heavy pull-through: supplier AXTI's InP revenue ran ~3x QoQ and ~10x YoY last quarter, with another 38% sequential gain guided. The other focus is CPO. Management has guided ultra-high-power lasers to start contributing in the Dec 2026 quarter, with hundreds of millions in orders in H1 2027 — so its read on mass-production timing is what the call hinges on. → NFA. For informational purposes only.

$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.