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told my hg to distract my bf while I sucked his brother 🧍
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Financial media often link the rise in copper prices to the AI trade. Data center construction and AI capital spending are usually cited as the reason. The chart below suggests the picture is more complicated. Copper (COMEX HG) rose 115.2 percent between October 2016 and March 2022. This was before the AI trade took hold. From March 2022 to September this year the increase has been a more moderate 36.2 percent. When looking at copper price moves, it helps to look beyond AI headlines. Basic supply and demand balances and inventory levels matter too. A few points worth watching. Shifts in China's demand mixState Grid's spending on transmission and distribution upgrades.Domestic output and export volumes for solar, wind and EV related goods. Constraints on the supply sideTreatment and refining charges near historic lows.Declining ore grades and disruption risk at major mines in Chile and Peru, including Cobre Panama.Lead times for new mine development, typically over fifteen years. Infrastructure renewal and macro conditions in the US and EuropeGrid modernization and renewable interconnection needs.Real interest rates in dollar terms, along with visible inventory levels at the LME and SHFE. [CHART COPPER HG USD/lb, October 2016 to September 2026]
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Some private equity firms are likely to face mounting refinancing problems in parts of their software portfolios, according to Hg Capital
#OVCEnterprises# updates: DR Laser's global HQ phase III has started construction; Topgene Biotech's Biolake HQ is now open; EasyDiagnosis has acquired Bcare, expanding into emergency care; and HG Laser's hydrogen energy production line has gone global.
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MssCorp (TWE: 6830) Serenity High Conviction Bet(analysis fully grounded in TSMC’s latest public expansion plans and 2026 industry data): – this is the functional monopoly in CPO/SiPh inspection (90%+ share targeted, pricing power is real). Long list of customers ($TSM, $NVDA, $AAPL, $AMAT , $LRCX, $ASML , $INTC ) all need to go through them for yields. NVIDIA dedicated AI Chip Zone in US facility = strategic lock-in. -GS CPO TAM still the anchor: $91B by 2028. -TSMC CoWoS doubling to 130k-140k wafers per month by end-2026 via AP7 Chiayi (world’s largest advanced packaging hub, CoPoS pilot 2026/volume ramp 2027-28) + AP8 Tainan (P1/P2) + AP5/AP6 upgrades. We are still in the frontrunning window. Pure TSMC fab expansion model only — no NVIDIA exclusive assumed. Factory-by-factory HG demand: HG is specialized QA/FA tool (not standard per-line gear). Base Assumption~60 units per major packaging “module group” (20 front / 20 mid / 20 back). Using latest TSMC 2026 data: AP6 (Longtan/Taichung): Operating + upgrade → ~30 units / MssCorp 25-30 units AP7 Chiayi: World’s largest, CoPoS pilot → ~45-120 units / MssCorp 40-100 units AP8 Tainan (P1-P2): Construction/ramp → ~120 units/ MssCorp 100-110 units AP8 later phases + AP9: 2028+ planning → ~240-260 units / MssCorp 200-220 units TSMC only total: ~435-530 units / MssCorp 365-460 units Updated HG model (reflecting monopoly + pricing power): Industry total demand 130-200 units 26-30. With 90%+ monopoly → MssCorp ships 120-180 units (spares + repeat buys). ASP NT$60M (pricing power) + GM 60-75%. HG contribution build (NT$ bn, cumulative 2026-2030): Equipment sales + Recurring services/consumables (25–45% of equipment value over 5 years) + IP licensing (20–35% of equipment rev, 80-90% margin). Total HG contribution NT$9.5bn–NT$13bn. Core MA/FA business growing 20-30% CAGR from NT$22B 2025 base on top. Revenue path (NT$ bn): 2026: 30–38 2027: 45–62 2028: 65–88 2029-30+: 180–240/yr (normalized) Mix shifts hard to high-margin equipment + recurring + IP as CPO goes volume Share count 51.78M. With the structural monopoly in a critical yield choke-point + TSMC/NVIDIA tailwinds, long-term normalized forward EPS can realistically reach NT$180–240 (US$5.6–7.5). 40–60x forward P/E (standard for AI/SiPh leaders with real moats) → target NT$5,000+. Current MC ~$1.2–1.4B.
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🚨 2028 POLL: If Trump could run again, would he get your vote? A) Absolutely (100%) B) Probably (75%) C) Not sure (25%) D) Definitely not (0%) One letter only. W.H.G