Private Trader, Retired top performing hedge fund manager, featured in New Market Wizards. Recipient of 2024 IFTA (tech analysis) Lifetime Achievement Award.
IFTA 2026 – London Calling! The Next Wave in TA
🗓️ 9-10 Oct | 📍 One Moorgate Place, City of London
Speakers: Perry Kaufman, Linda Bradford-Raschke, Zoe Bollinger, Robin Mesch, David Keller CMT, Seiji Adachi MFTA
Register:
#IFTA2026#
The alternation between market "states" is a challenge for many newer traders. This chart shows the extended run trend on the bunds, followed by a choppy daily consolidation. How does a trader know when a consolidation has ended and the breakout is for real? And how does one know that a prolonged consolidation might be unfolding?
Check out all the NR7s in assorted markets for today. Remember, NR7/ID does not imply a breakout or trend day. Watch early volume. If light, it leads to a very choppy day - as in further consolidation after a big move. This can be called a "bracketing market" where the market does morning price discovery and often whipsaws in both directions.
And then the same old same old...MSFT: great example of case where no trade into gap area leads to higher for next two weeks. (I did not participate in this).
Russell: Example of perfect structure - corrective A B C wave in uptrend on 240 minute chart. Frequency of occurrence is low on the best formations...I tee it up when they come along. (Move started in last nights evening session).
Gotta love earnings season! TWLO will open up around previous swing high. This is a great example that shows oscillators are of little value when there are no oscillations or swings. Instead, the "sideways line" sets operations to "breakout mode".
Indexes have a three bar triangle on the dailies. This means that if the LOW of the 240 minute chart is taken out it is a failure test, and better downside can unfold.
There is nothing statistically significant about a 5 SMA. But it is a close approximation of a 240 EMA (again, statistically insignificant.) SP 5 SMA on daily still a ways away.
Bonds on Sell Short day from my homework last night - I mark off these repair areas on each market. So many of them, but context important: In uptrend, downtrend, or trading range-big picture.