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$INTC #INTC# Double breakout on Friday.
Intel (INTC) shares gave up earlier gains following the company’s earnings beat. @J_B_Horne breaks down the results, while @ProsperTrading's @SIBOptionPro outlines an example options trade for $INTC. For more:
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🚀 Abstract of Intel (INTC) Update • On Aug 11, share offering upsized to $20B (from $15B), priced at $95 (only ~2.6% discount). Institutional demand reportedly >$100B. • CEO + family member subscribed ~$12M → strong signal of confidence. • Foundry progress solid: 18A yields ~80% in 2Q26, CWF ramping. Strong external customer engagement (esp. Apple mass-volume 14A). • EMIB customer pipeline expanding – Google + AWS + and likely more ASICs. Back-end revenue forecast lifted to $1.1B/$7B in FY27/FY28. • EMIB has obtained substrate suppliers support, and to enhance supply, we expect it to in-house Silicon Capacitor (rather than replying on external)! • Still expect foundry OP breakeven by 4Q27, followed by meaningful margin leverage in 2028. • TP maintained at $136 after dilution. Equity raise funds capex growth; CEO confidence + advancing foundry/EMIB = constructive. #INTC# #INTEL# #EMIB#
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Takeaways of Intel (INTC) 2Q26 earnings note •TP to $136 (5x 2027E BVPS / 34x 2028E EPS) •2Q26 the strongest rev growth in 15+ years of $16.1B, beat estimates (consensus $14.3b, GFe $14.8b) •Strong 3Q guidance of Rev $16.3b (vs consensus $15.1b, GFe $16.2b). GM guide of 42% (vs consensus 40%, GFe 42.2%). Foundry Accelerating: •Foundry business gaining strong traction with sound execution •18A yields ahead of internal targets; Panther Lake inline with our ~80% view •Intel 18A-P entered risk production — competitive node for external customers (e.g. Apple M-series highlighted in Dec 2025) •14A clear timeline: PDK 0.9 by Oct, risk production + external customer volume in 2H28 •Robust pipeline, especially Apple smartphone & server CPUs •Aggressively raising 2026 capex >$20B, with significantly higher 2027 capex — big capacity buildout for 14A/18A/Intel 3, inline with our earlier note of a Big Lift in Capacity •On track for profitability in 2H27 driven by yield + scale Other Highlights: •Upward EPS revisions (+3% 2026E / +11% 2027E) 🆚 Per our earlier TSMC (2330 TT) Downgrade note on July 16, we note that TSMC’s capex acceleration was late in this AI cycle, leaving room for Intel, which also backed by Made in U.S. and improving execution. #Intel# #INTC# #Semiconductors# #Foundry#
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my biggest regret recently is not buying INTC when Trump did in Aug 2025 a close second (maybe first lol) is selling over 70% of my PLTR position last year Does anyone want to share similar regrets to make me feel better about myself?
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《GF Securities Overseas Electronics Newsletter》 ☄ Intel (INTC, Buy): Equity Offering Signals Confidence, Foundry and EMIB Continue to Advance ☀ Reiterate Buy and $136 target price: We view this equity offering as sending a positive signal. The CEO’s direct subscription demonstrates confidence, and it also reflects the smooth progress of the foundry business. We expect the foundry business to reach breakeven (BEP) in 4Q27, with margin leverage kicking in fully in 2028. Yields and external customer acquisition (particularly Apple) are progressing solidly, and the EMIB customer base is also expanding (Google and AWS). Intel has secured support from substrate (carrier) supplier Unimicron, and will produce silicon capacitors internally. We raise our 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by 3%/1% respectively and maintain our $136 target price, factoring in dilution. ☀ The equity offering sends a positive signal: Intel upsized the offering from an initial $15bn to $20bn, and institutional demand reportedly exceeded $100bn. The offering price was $95, and the overallotment option (greenshoe) was fully exercised. CEO Lip-Bu Tan and his family subscribed for roughly $12mn at the offering price, which we read as a signal of management’s confidence in the company, and which should also support FY27 capex. ☀ A solid EMIB customer base drives the foundry business further: Intel reaffirmed its guidance that the foundry business will reach breakeven by the end of 2027, and stated that if this slips to 2028 it would mainly be due to increased new investment requirements. We maintain our existing view that 2Q26 18A yields are around 80%, and CWF (Clearwater Forest) has already entered the production ramp phase. Collaboration with external customers also continues to progress, with Apple’s 14A high volume production particularly notable. We raise our FY27/FY28 backend revenue estimates to $1.1bn/$7.0bn respectively, driven by improved visibility on AWS Trainium3 (T3) adopting EMIB-T in 2027, and by Google’s Humufish/Triggerfish entering volume expansion in 2H27 to 2028. We also expect ASICs from AWS and Microsoft could adopt EMIB in 2028. $INTC
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$BE from $128.95 → $269.28(+109%) $INTC from $49.41 → $106.24(+115%) $ARM from $144.77 → $264.23(+83%) $MU from $531.04 → $1,027.77(+94%) $NVDA from $173.96 → $223.67(+29%) $DELL from $168.35 → $535.25(+218%) $NBIS from $105.27 → $240.35(+128%) $AMD from $214.04 → $521.09(+143%) $MRVL from $102.50 → $235.01(+129%) $SNDK from $677.45 → $1,764.17(+160%) If you have any questions about stock investing, you can follow me, and I’ll provide answers.
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TSMC vs. INTC: UBS stays positive TSMC (not terribly controversial); EMIB is a strong 2nd source.
He's baaaaack: "Somebody" just spent $100MM premium on 2 week AI Stock Calls for the Oct2 expiration: INTC Oct2nd 115c bot up to 3.65 20k $7.3MM MRVL Oct2nd 250c bot 11.00 3500x $3.85MM SNDK Oct2nd 1600c bot up to 97.60 4200x $41MM MU oct 2nd 1000c bot up to 44.00 10k $44MM
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