Takeaways of Intel (INTC) 2Q26 earnings note
•TP to $136 (5x 2027E BVPS / 34x 2028E EPS)
•2Q26 the strongest rev growth in 15+ years of $16.1B, beat estimates (consensus $14.3b, GFe $14.8b)
•Strong 3Q guidance of Rev $16.3b (vs consensus $15.1b, GFe $16.2b). GM guide of 42% (vs consensus 40%, GFe 42.2%).
Foundry Accelerating:
•Foundry business gaining strong traction with sound execution
•18A yields ahead of internal targets; Panther Lake inline with our ~80% view
•Intel 18A-P entered risk production — competitive node for external customers (e.g. Apple M-series highlighted in Dec 2025)
•14A clear timeline: PDK 0.9 by Oct, risk production + external customer volume in 2H28
•Robust pipeline, especially Apple smartphone & server CPUs
•Aggressively raising 2026 capex >$20B, with significantly higher 2027 capex — big capacity buildout for 14A/18A/Intel 3, inline with our earlier note of a Big Lift in Capacity
•On track for profitability in 2H27 driven by yield + scale
Other Highlights:
•Upward EPS revisions (+3% 2026E / +11% 2027E)
🆚 Per our earlier TSMC (2330 TT) Downgrade note on July 16, we note that TSMC’s capex acceleration was late in this AI cycle, leaving room for Intel, which also backed by Made in U.S. and improving execution.
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