📊Today’s #BIT# Daily Chart - May 6, 2026 ⬇️ Volatility Is Compressing — Fuel for Bitcoin’s Next Leg Higher? #BIT# #Bitcoin# #BTC# #CryptoMarkets# #ImpliedVolatility# #MarketMomentum# #DigitalAssets#

📊 #BITDailyChart# | Rising Options Demand Signals a Shift Toward Bitcoin Upside Bitcoin and Ethereum implied volatility is rising as demand for upside call options accelerates, suggesting the summer lull may be ending. Several large bullish call trades have emerged, while Bitcoin's implied volatility has rebounded from 31% to 36% after falling from 44%, signaling renewed optimism. This shift should help support Bitcoin despite the seasonally weaker August and September period. Going into the summer, we previously favored selling volatility, expecting a consolidation, but changed our view last week as options positioning and market sentiment turned more constructive. Disclaimer: This content is provided by a contracted analyst for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk. #Bitcoin# #Ethereum# #ImpliedVolatility# #BTC# #ETH#

【2026.5.15】The difference between the implied volatility of 1-month 25-delta put and call options on US tech stocks (i.e., option skewness) has decreased significantly (bottom right of the chart). While a decrease in option skewness is generally a positive sign, it is currently near historical lows, indicating excessive optimism and an underestimation of risk. Any extreme extreme in anything is a sign of a reversal, and option skewness nearing historical lows often foreshadows potential increases in short-term market volatility. Once external factors cause disruptions that fail to further drive market expectations, extreme optimism can turn into extreme disappointment. Therefore, when option skewness is at historical lows, leverage should be appropriately reduced and hedging protection increased. Similar to the VIX, extremely low volatility itself may only be noteworthy, but if several fatal combinations occur simultaneously (e.g., low volatility + high valuation + pessimistic options market + tightening PQ liquidity), especially in the RXM/SPX range... As previously discussed, this reflects the true risk appetite of market participants, meaning that option pricing is currently extremely cautious (low ratio). Meanwhile, market valuations are high, and volatility remains low (VIX remains low). Liquidity is tightening (PQ) (see the chart below for several dimensions).

While spot prices chop in a tight range, the derivatives market is coiling for a massive move under the surface. 📈💥 Bitcoin and Ethereum Implied Volatility (IV) has initiated a sharp rebound, fueled by an unprecedented wave of institutional call option purchases. The latest KuCoin blog breaks down what smart money is positioning for: 📊 The Volatility Floor Breaks: After $BTC 30-day IV hit a multi-month statistical low near ~31–33%, implied volatility is surging back as traders price in a significant range expansion. 🐋 Whale Block Trades: Institutional desks aggressively swept up ~40,000 options contracts, heavily clustering around the out-of-the-money $70,000 Bitcoin call strike. 🏛️ Macro Front-Running: Smart money is utilizing leveraged call options to secure upside exposure ahead of upcoming Fed interest rate decisions and ongoing Spot Ethereum ETF absorption. ☀️ Defying the Summer Slump: Instead of the typical Q3 seasonal drain, a plunging Put-Call ratio indicates derivative desks are actively prepping for an early Q3 breakout. Don't let spot consolidation fool you—the options market is dropping serious forward-looking clues. Read the full derivatives breakdown here:

Volatility at the individual stock level. VIXEQ, the Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index, measures the market‑cap‑weighted implied volatility of the individual S&P 500 stocks rather than the index itself. VIXEQ near 50 underscores extreme single‑stock volatility and unprecedented dispersion beneath a deceptively calm headline VIX. Not surprising, given everyone is long the AI bottleneck trade. This regime signals crowded thematic positioning, fragile liquidity, and elevated shock risk if correlations snap higher, warranting tighter risk controls and volatility‑aware stock picking. In other words, extreme risk at the stock level, given the crowded trade in the AI Bottleneck theme.

When Icarus Meets the Second Derivative: Semiconductors, Memory, and the Moment of Reckoning. There are, today, two markets hiding inside what we still lazily call “the market,” and the widening spread between the Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index (VIXEQ) and the headline VIX is the cleanest expression of that fact. One game is the familiar index game, played in the language of the S&P 500, the VIX, and ETF beta; the other is a far more consequential stock‑level game, dominated by single‑name options, dispersion, and the violent separation of winners from losers. When single‑stock implied volatility materially exceeds index volatility, the market is declaring that stock selection – not passive exposure – has become paramount. Nowhere is this bifurcation more evident than in semiconductors and memory. At the index level, volatility looks well‑behaved, yet the chip and memory complex has become the epicentre of a very different regime. Semiconductor and DRAM/NAND earnings disproportionately drive index‑level growth, while option markets price a wide distribution of outcomes across individual chipmakers and memory suppliers. The key risk is no longer “will the S&P 500 sell off,” but “which semi and memory names will actually earn the growth and valuations they have been granted.” In that world, broad beta exposure via SMH or SOXX is an increasingly blunt instrument. The stock market, in this context, is all about the second derivative of earnings growth: as long as the acceleration in earnings is positive, the narrative can levitate; the moment that second derivative turns negative, watch out. To be clear this is not above valuation it’s above the acceleration and or deceleration of earnings growth. Folks want to buy parabolic charts. In the first half of 2026, virtually every major semiconductor and memory name went parabolic, and are at extreme levels above 200‑day EMA as if basic gravity no longer applied. Like Icarus, who ignored his father’s warnings and flew too close to the sun, libertarian and cyberpunk day‑traders crowding single‑stock options are making an unambiguous bet that the earnings revision cycle in chips and memory will keep detonating to the upside. In this phase, it is not about valuation; it is about the acceleration and deceleration of earnings growth and the surprises that accompany those inflection points. The stock market rewards positive second derivatives and punishes their reversal. When the second derivative rolls over, when revisions slow, surprises disappoint, and the arc of earnings momentum bends downward, the wax in Icarus’s wings starts to melt.

Paradis Macro Report [June 17]: FOMC Summary & AI Trade Impact (2 min read): 1. Rates held at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected. 2. But the next move could be to raise rates due to rising inflation driven by energy prices (Iran war). 3. Hawkish surprise with 9/18 participants penciling in one hike later this year (was 0 participants in March) w/ median dot at 3.8% (2026) and 3.6% (2027). 4. Five new "task forces" launched to overhaul Fed: comms, balance sheet, data, productivity/labour and inflation. 5. Forward guidance scrapped = Less public information on Fed outlook = More volatile market. -> AI Trade Impact: In theory: Less guidance + higher implied volatility = structural headwind to multiples. But, we all know that the AI trade defies logic. So for now, the AI capex narrative is trading on its own unique fundamentals...less sensitive to rates/broader macro.

Weekly Capped Accelerated ETF Tracker – as of May 15, 2026 Our capped accelerated exchange-traded funds aim for 2X a stock’s monthly gain – up to a monthly “cap”. They also aim for 1X the downside if the stock drops for the month. The ETFs trade options to create the below payoff by the end of the month: • If the stock rises, the ETF doubles that move until it reaches the monthly cap. • If the stock falls, the ETF drops the same amount as the stock. Caps reset at the start of each month, based on option prices and implied volatility. If you hold the ETF from the start of the month, you know the full cap that’s available. But if you buy during the month, it depends on where the ETF is trading at that point. • If the fund is down so far, there’s more upside potential left until it reaches the cap. • If the fund is up so far, there’s less upside potential to the cap. The table shows the remaining upside % to the cap for each of our capped accelerated ETFs. Follow Leverage Shares ETFs for more updates.