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$BTC's yearly open is around 87.5k and recent price action has been consolidating above a key support at 79k. One key metric to look for is a change in characteristic of the Coinbase premium. (White = positive premium & Red = Negative premium) Bitcoin tends to press higher when the premium is positive. Despite the consolidation we still can observe a slightly positive premium during the New York session. Some traders within the Greeks Live telegram think we can reach 84k so long as 79k remains as support. Do you agree?

May 8 Options Expiration Data 20,000 BTC options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.73, a max pain point of $79,500, and a notional value of $1.6 billion. 182,000 ETH options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.93, a max pain point of $2,350, and a notional value of $410 million. This week, Bitcoin rose steadily from $75,000 to $82,000 before pulling back last night. Despite the positive price action, market sentiment has remained relatively calm. Major-term options and short-term implied volatility (IV) remained unchanged from last week, while short-term IV saw a slight increase. Bitcoin’s primary short-term IV hovers around 35%, while ETH’s primary short-term IV is near 50%; both medium- and long-term IVs have also seen modest declines. Looking at key options data, Skew remains relatively stable with a very slight increase, and the market’s directional sentiment remains neutral. Only 5% of options expire this week, with extremely low options activity and futures trading volume at historic lows. Open interest stood at approximately 20% at the end of May and 30% at the end of June, while block trades have been relatively inactive—all of which are signals of a consolidation phase. In the second quarter of this year, Bitcoin performed well in terms of both price and market sentiment, but overall market enthusiasm remains subdued. Currently, the focus is primarily on Bitcoin trading, and it makes sense to position for some medium- to long-term options. Additionally, investing in some high-quality altcoins appears to offer good value for money.

BitDeer's price has suddenly skyrocketed. Crypto stocks on the U.S. market have been performing well recently, which is a long-term signal; these fluctuations typically occur on a monthly basis.

1) Signalling by Trump on an imminent Iran solution forced short Calls to cover and push up to higher strikes as BTC breached 78k. Not all were convinced as large exchanges took place in 70k Puts and further interest below. As the weekend rolled in, Iran pushed back, as did BTC.

As the price of Bitcoin continues to rebound, the IV of major-term options is actually decreasing, while Skew is clearly skewed positively. This phenomenon is primarily due to the gradual calming of the military conflict between the United States and Iran, leading to a decline in market concerns about the risk of war, resulting in a significant decrease in the prices of put options. The order book volume and block trade have been relatively balanced, with most trades concentrated in the current month and the following month. The market has undergone a re-adjustment of its positional strategies, and the main participants have reached a consensus on the expected trends for the future – low volatility is becoming the prevailing trend in the market.