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🟢 Sandisk $SNDK +501% 🟢 Intel $INTC +213% 🟢 Seagate $STX +187% 🟢 Western Digital $WDC +171% 🟢 Micron $MU +153% 🟢 Lumentum $LITE +147% 🟢 Ciena $CIEN +140% 🟢 Dell $DELL +130% 🟢 Corning $GLW +117% 🟢 AMD $AMD +111%
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MYNAME Behind Story #.105 - 170618 [SCHOOL OF MYNAME] (세용) (view all : #마이네임# #MYNAME# #세용# #SEYONG# #SCHOOLOFMYNAME#
I’m 44 years old and used to work at JPMorgan Chase. My monthly income is $110,000. My June advice: $LITE (Lumentum) — Don’t buy $ASTC (Astrotech) — Don’t buy $CRWV (CoreWeave) — Don’t buy $IBM (IBM Corp) — Buy at $285–$293 $MSFT (Microsoft) — Buy at $442–$448 $ARM (Arm Holdings) — Buy at $348–$353 $MU (Micron Technologys) — Buy at $977–$985 People ask, Why don’t you charge? I’ve made enough. Sharing is my passion ,that’s why I post for fre.
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New TradFi Equity Perps are coming soon! Trade the following contracts on Binance Futures with up to 10x leverage: 🔸 Uber (UBERUSDT) 🔸 Cisco (CSCOUSDT) 🔸 Oracle (ORCLUSDT) 🔸 Walt Disney (DISUSDT) 🔸 Home Depot (HDUSDT) 🔸 Lumentum Holdings (LITEUSDT) Know more 👉
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What's moving pre-market 1. Iran sent its reply to the US peace proposal 2. Lumentum +5%, joining Nasdaq-100 on May 18 3. OKLO insiders dumped $49M before the decade peak 4. Moderna +9% on a confirmed US Hantavirus case 5. Iraqi crude tanker traverses Hormuz (despite the noise)
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## Earnings Wrap-Up ### **AMD (Buy) | TP: $511** * **Guidance slightly beat expectations ($11.2bn vs. $10.5bn Bloomberg consensus, Buy side $10.96b). ***Server CPU TAM** now projected at >35% CAGR. AMD’s leadership will be further strengthened by Venice and a diversified CPU portfolio. ***Progress on **MI455/Helios** remains on track. * **Outlook:** Some investors were a bit cautious before the print; additionally, the frequent demand upward revision misled analysts’ near-term estimates. That said, the pause before the print could further boost the share price outperformance. Overall, we remain bullish ### **Lumentum (LITE - Buy) | TP: $1,168** * **Slightly below** FY3Q revenue ($808m) slightly missed buy-side targets, and F4Q’s $985m below buy sides $1bn, though gross margins expanded to **47.9%**. * **Key Drivers:** Laser supply remains structurally tight as demand outpaces capacity. OCS is gaining momentum via multi-year agreements. * **Outlook:** While the FY4Q guidance led to a brief after-hours pull-back, earnings power is expected to scale dramatically into CY2027. ### **Supermicro (SMCI - Hold) | TP: $43** * **Shares jumped 18% after hours following a strong Gross Margin beat. * **Key Drivers:** Margin gains were driven by a better customer mix (enterprise) and fewer low-margin GB300s. * **Outlook:** While margins are expected to remain elevated, the rating remains **Hold** due to uncertain top-line growth and limited visibility on new GB300 bookings.
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$LITE Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $808M (Est. $809M) 🟡; +90% YoY 🔹 EPS: $2.37 (Est. $2.27) 🟢; +316% YoY 🔹 Gross Margin: 47.9% (Est. 45.2%) 🟢 🔹 Operating Margin: 32.2% 🔹 Cash, Cash Equivalents & Short-Term Investments: $3,172.3M Q4 FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $960M (Est. $935M) 🟢; +100% YoY 🔹 EPS: $2.85-$3.05 (Est. $2.74) 🟢; +1% to +8% YoY 🔹 Operating Margin: 35.0%-36.0% Other Metrics: 🔹 Series A Convertible Preferred Stock Issuance: Contributed approximately $2.0B to cash in March 2026 🔹 Acquisition: Business acquired in March 2026, details not disclosed 🔹 Restructuring Charges: $1.1M in Q3 FY2026 related to reduction in force 🔹 Cloud Light Escrow Settlement: $27.5M completed during nine months ended March 28, 2026 Commentary: 🔸 “Lumentum delivered an exceptional third quarter, with revenue growing 90% year over year to a record $808 million.” 🔸 “While our top line growth continues to garner headlines, the more impressive part of our recent performance has been our margin expansion.” 🔸 “In fiscal Q3, gross margin improved by 540 basis points on quarter and operating margin by 700 basis points.”
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$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.
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AI Hardware Demand Growth and Representative US-Listed Companies June 2026 Executive Summary Nvidia’s transition to the Vera Rubin (VR200) platform marks a significant escalation in AI infrastructure complexity and cost. Our BOM teardown of the next-generation Rubin rack reveals a ~2x increase in total rack cost to approximately $7.8 million (vs. ~$4 million for GB300), driven not solely by the GPU/CPU but by sharp revaluations across the supply chain. Key highlights from downstream components include: • PCB content value +233% YoY, the largest increase. • MLCC +182%, reflecting higher density and count (e.g., ~600k MLCCs per VR200 NVL72 server, +30%+ vs. GB300). • ABF substrates +82%, power solutions +32%, and liquid cooling +12%. These upgrades align with broader AI scaling: 800G/1.6T optical transceivers ramping aggressively, glass-based technologies advancing for packaging and interconnects, and hyperscalers prioritizing performance, power efficiency, and thermal management. We expect sustained multi-year tailwinds for the AI hardware ecosystem into 2027+, with Rubin-driven demand accelerating in H2 2026. Investment Thesis: While Nvidia (NVDA) remains the core beneficiary, the supply chain offers diversified exposure. We favor companies with direct exposure to high-growth areas like advanced PCBs, high-speed optics, and glass substrates/optical interconnects. Risks include execution on new capacity, potential margin pressure from rapid scaling, and geopolitical supply chain factors. 1. PCB: Sharpest Value Uplift in Rubin BOM Morgan Stanley’s detailed analysis shows PCB content in the Rubin rack surging +233% versus GB300. This reflects needs for higher layer counts, advanced materials, better signal integrity, and larger formats to support increased power and interconnect density in AI servers. US Representative: TTM Technologies (TTMI) – Leading US PCB manufacturer with strong positioning in high-complexity boards for data center/AI applications. TTM has invested in capacity expansions (e.g., new facilities) to capture AI-driven demand for advanced HDI and high-layer PCBs. 2. MLCC: Density-Driven Surge Nvidia’s VR200 NVL72 platform requires ~600,000 MLCCs per server, over 30% more than GB300. Combined with the +182% value increase in the BOM, this underscores tightening supply for high-capacitance, high-reliability MLCCs in power delivery and decoupling for AI accelerators. Exposure Note: The MLCC market is dominated by Asian players (e.g., Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo). US-listed indirect exposure may come through broader electronics or power solution providers, but direct pure-play opportunities are limited. Watch for capacity utilization tightness benefiting the ecosystem. 3. Optical Communication: 800G/1.6T Ramp Accelerating Chinese leader Zhongji Innolight reported Q1 2026 net profit +262% YoY, driven by strong 800G/1.6T shipments, with expectations of significant full-year growth. This mirrors industry-wide momentum as AI clusters shift toward higher-speed optics for reduced latency and power in scale-out/scale-up networking. Nvidia’s investments in photonics and CPO further validate the trend. US Representatives: • Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE): Key players in optical components and transceivers; Nvidia has made substantial equity investments to secure capacity. • Corning (GLW): Major beneficiary via optical fiber, connectivity, and glass technologies (detailed below). 4. Micro-LED/Glass Substrates & Optical Interconnects: Strategic Partnerships Accelerating On May 20, 2026, BOE announced a cooperation MOU with Corning covering glass-based encapsulation carriers, foldable glass, perovskite substrates, and optical interconnect applications. This aligns with industry shifts toward glass cores for superior flatness, thermal stability, and integration in advanced packaging and photonics—critical for next-gen AI as organic substrates hit limits. US Representative: Corning (GLW) – Central to Nvidia’s optical strategy with multi-billion partnerships, new US optical factories, and expansion in fiber/photonics for AI data centers. Recent deals position GLW for 10x+ capacity growth in key areas. AI Hardware Demand Growth & US-Listed Representative Companies Table Component Demand Growth (vs. GB300) Key Drivers US-Listed Reps Investment Rationale PCB +233% value Higher layers, HDI, signal integrity TTM Technologies (TTMI) Direct AI server/backplane exposure; US capacity expansion MLCC +182% value; +30%+ count Power density in servers Limited direct (ecosystem via power suppliers) Supply tightness supports pricing/volume Optical Comm (800G/1.6T) Strong ramp (e.g., +262% profit ex.) Scale-out networking, CPO transition Coherent (COHR), Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW) Nvidia investments; transceiver/fiber boom Glass Substrates/Interconnects Emerging (MOU-driven) Packaging, photonics, thermal/optical Corning (GLW) Nvidia factory deals; US manufacturing tailwinds Power & Liquid Cooling +32% / +12% Higher TDP (e.g., 2300W GPUs) Indirect (ecosystem) Secondary but critical for rack deployment Source: Morgan Stanley BOM analysis, company reports, industry data. Growth metrics approximate from Rubin teardown. Outlook & Risks We project robust 2026-2027 growth in AI capex, with Rubin shipments catalyzing another leg-up in component demand. Optical and advanced substrate shifts could extend the cycle beyond traditional GPU focus. Hyperscalers’ vertical integration and US onshoring (e.g., Corning/Nvidia factories) add resilience. Key Risks: Cyclical capex pauses, yield/execution challenges on new tech (glass/CPO), commodity volatility in passives, and intense competition in Asia-heavy segments. Valuation multiples in the space have expanded; selectivity is key. Recommendation: Overweight select supply chain names with strong Nvidia alignment (e.g., TTMI for PCBs, COHR/LITE/GLW for optics/glass). Monitor Q2 2026 earnings for confirmation of Rubin ramp momentum.
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JUST IN: Stanley Druckenmiller just updated his portfolio This is everything Duquesne Family and Stanley Druckenmiller owned as of the end of Q1 Natera $NTRA: $576.7M Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM: $201.2M STMicroelectronics $STM: $161.1M YPF Sociedad Anonima $YPF: $142.0M Insmed $INSM: $126.3M Brazil ETF $EWZ: $124.6M BBB Foods $TBBB: $113.6M NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: $109.2M Sea Limited $SE: $96.8M Roku $ROKU: $93.2M Alcoa $AA: $92.9M Broadcom $AVGO: $83.7M Teva Pharmaceutical $TEVA: $82.1M Woodward $WWD: $73.6M Sandisk $SNDK: $54.1M Figure Technology $FIGR: $51.2M Revolution Medicines $RVMD: $46.0M Intel $INTC: $44.9M Coupang $CPNG: $43.5M Humana $HUM: $42.1M Seagate $STX: $40.6M CRH $CRH: $39.0M Lattice Semiconductor $LSCC: $39.0M Bloom Energy $BE: $38.6M Option Care Health $OPCH: $36.5M Twilio $TWLO: $36.0M Restaurant Brands $QSR: $34.6M Global X MSCI Argentina ETF $ARGT: $33.7M Jabil $JBL: $28.2M Caris Life Sciences $CAI: $28.1M Wabtec $WAB: $25.0M United Airlines $UAL: $24.6M Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF: $23.8M Arm Holdings $ARM: $22.5M iShares GSCI Commodity $GSG: $22.0M Southern Copper $SCCO: $21.7M Linde $LIN: $20.9M Unity Software $U: $20.4M Nuvation Bio $NUVB: $20.1M Qnity Electronics $Q: $19.8M Micron Technology $MU: $17.2M Protagonist Therapeutics $PTGX: $16.4M Coherent $COHR: $15.8M Belite Bio $BLTE: $15.2M Olema Pharmaceuticals $OLMA: $13.4M Xenon Pharmaceuticals $XENE: $13.0M ADMA Biologics $ADMA: $12.8M StubHub Holdings $STUB: $12.2M PureCycle Technologies $PCT: $12.1M Amazon $AMZN: $12.1M Celestica CLS: $12.0M Daktronics DAKT: $10.7M Cloudflare NET: $10.4M Twist Bioscience TWST: $10.1M LyondellBasell LYB: $9.9M Vista Energy VIST: $9.8M JBS JBS: $8.9M EchoStar SATS: $8.3M Almonty Industries ALM: $8.2M DBV Technologies DBVT: $7.5M Lumentum LITE: $6.8M Solstice Advanced Materials SOLS: $5.3M MercadoLibre MELI: $4.3M Westlake WLK: $1.9M Wave Life Sciences WVE: $1.2M
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