# 3D Packaging & **Onto Innovation (ONTO TP $397) Note * **Outlook:** 2026 revenue guided at **$1.3bn**; capacity supports **$2bn** by 2027. ### **3D Packaging Trend** We expect the shift to 3D for Nvidia Feynman, AWS Trainium, and Google V9 (Broadcom). * **Capacity Surge:** We forecast TSMC SoIC capacity to be 15KPM and 35KPM by end of 2026 and 2027. * **Tools:** **G5/3Di** tool shipments expected to jump from ~30 units in 2026 to >100 units in 2027. #ONTO#

## Earnings Wrap-Up ### **AMD (Buy) | TP: $511** * **Guidance slightly beat expectations ($11.2bn vs. $10.5bn Bloomberg consensus, Buy side $10.96b). ***Server CPU TAM** now projected at >35% CAGR. AMD’s leadership will be further strengthened by Venice and a diversified CPU portfolio. ***Progress on **MI455/Helios** remains on track. * **Outlook:** Some investors were a bit cautious before the print; additionally, the frequent demand upward revision misled analysts’ near-term estimates. That said, the pause before the print could further boost the share price outperformance. Overall, we remain bullish ### **Lumentum (LITE - Buy) | TP: $1,168** * **Slightly below** FY3Q revenue ($808m) slightly missed buy-side targets, and F4Q’s $985m below buy sides $1bn, though gross margins expanded to **47.9%**. * **Key Drivers:** Laser supply remains structurally tight as demand outpaces capacity. OCS is gaining momentum via multi-year agreements. * **Outlook:** While the FY4Q guidance led to a brief after-hours pull-back, earnings power is expected to scale dramatically into CY2027. ### **Supermicro (SMCI - Hold) | TP: $43** * **Shares jumped 18% after hours following a strong Gross Margin beat. * **Key Drivers:** Margin gains were driven by a better customer mix (enterprise) and fewer low-margin GB300s. * **Outlook:** While margins are expected to remain elevated, the rating remains **Hold** due to uncertain top-line growth and limited visibility on new GB300 bookings.