Mizuho on $CRDO: "very positive $MU / CRDO": "Our checks indicate GB300 ramps could continue, significantly stronger than previously expected, into 2H26E and into 2027E - Very Positive MU-CRDO. With GB300 at ~$4M/rack and 145KW, tight memory and land/power/shell (LPS) we see a fat BW tail driving higher rack shipments into 2027E vs VR at ~$8M/rack and ~200KW/800V-400V dual-rail racks. We believe this is consistent with $NVDA recent comments "August Blackwell shipments up 27% m/m" and 2027E GPU shipments up 2x y/y.The upside for connector suppliers comes from increased number of racks/cables, offsetting the downside of lower ASP at 100G/lane vs 200G/lane. For NVDA, we est. ~10% of OctQ units (20% of revenue) on VR/1.6T."

Mizuho on opticals: We see CW laser capacity ramping sharply from ~83M units in 2025 to ~427M by 2029E (Ex-7), driven by SiPho pluggables at 1.6T/3.2T and the initial NPO/CPO transition into 2027-2029E as we see yields improving. We see $COHR profitability lagging as we believe it relies on external lasers for it's leading-edge products (also sourced from LITE) and its business model remains more transceiver-heavy which is lower-margin vs LITE, which we see as more laser-oriented. On margins, LITE continues to ramp GMs sharply from low-30% in early 2024 to the low-50% range in 2026-2028E, while COHR rises more gradually to only the low-40s%, resulting in a 10-11ppt gap. We believe ELS pluggable modules housing a laser source could start to ramp as well. ELS as the back plate pluggable component retains serviceability in case of a component failure, while enabling laser light to transmit the converted optical signal and advance more efficient optical architectures. $LITE has noted orders for ELS have begun, with we believe potentially 2x content opportunity compared to laser chips alone. Ex-China, we believe COHR is the largest transceiver assembler with ~17% market share, differentiated via deep InP vertical integration and high in-house component supply. We note some tailwinds with $NVDA, incl. $2B investment and multi-year CPO/CW supply agreement through YE-2030E. We estimate LITE's Cloudlight business (acquired Nov 2023) is ramping strongly toward ~$900M C26E revenues and ~$1.2B by C27E, but remains smaller at >6% market share. Similar to COHR, LITE is leveraging CW/EML in house manufacturing, but we believe it is entirely reliant on in-house laser chip supply, with a path to mid-30% GM. FN is an important assembler, serving NVDA's designed transceivers alongside merchant OEM contracts. $AAOI (NC) is another key domestic assembler, operating three Taiwan facilities (~795K sq ft) with a new Pearland, Texas facility (800G/1.6T) and an estimated SOP in early 2027E.

Mizuho Bank, a unit of Japanese lender Mizuho and a creditor of iron ore trader Radiant World, has taken legal steps to remove the management of the merchant’s key operating company in Singapore, according to a court document

Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh said investors will be riveted on Nvidia’s outlook for artificial intelligence on Wednesday because expectations of a big beat on profit are essentially baked in.

Mizuho: Memory, CPO, 800VDC > Memory Bottlenecks & De-spec Risks: Potential significant DRAM de-spec risks are driving investor concern. GPU/ASIC OEMs may cap future HBM content at 4-8Hi, making 12Hi less appealing, while 16Hi/20Hi and hybrid bonding remain uncertain for future DRAM generations. > Impact on Shipments & Demand: GOOGL has scaled down TPUv8 HBM3e to 8Hi. Lower DRAM/GPU content could allow roughly 20-30% more GPU/ASIC shipments, driving higher aggregate DRAM bit demand for training, inference, and KVCache, alongside better margins. > Connectivity and Hardware Upside: Copper, NPO SiPho, and InP show upside for CRDO and LITE, whereas CPO is roughly 2 to 3 years away. A less-constrained memory environment points to upside for GPU/ASIC shipments and rack scale-up/out connectivity. > 800V Ramp Delays: Potential 800V delays are allowing for a smoother ramp. Data center installers are pushing back due to near-term power space changes and the need for personnel retraining, with DC racks moving toward OCP ORv3 Diablo bipolar dual-rail 400V racks. (Via @sean_________) $CRDO $LITE $GOOGL $NVDA $MU $DRAM $EWY

Mizuho on SemiAnalysis (rumor mill) channel checks: "Significant Feynman de-spec risk (potentially ~50%). 16/20Hi HBM + hybrid bonding still highly uncertain. GOOGL already scaled TPUv8 HBM3e to 8Hi." "Lower HBM content per GPU/ASIC = 20-30% more shipments possible. Aggregate DRAM bit demand for training/inference/KVCache actually rises. Better GPU/ASIC margins." "That extra silicon volume is pure upside for copper AEC, NPO, SiPho/InP. $CRDO and $LITE the clearest beneficiaries. CPO still 2-3 years out." "800V looks delayed — data centers pushing back hard on rapid power architecture change + staff retraining. Moving to OCP ORv3 Diablo 400V bipolar instead. More VRMs, smoother ramp." "2027 is still a monster year: xAI/ $SPCX 10GW + the $500B Neocloud financing facility = real tailwind. $GOOGL morphing into a major Neocloud supplier with accelerating TPU ramps. Mizuho modestly cuts PTs ( $MU $1,300 / $SNDK $1,875 / AMAT $590 / MKSI $330 / LRCX $365) on multiple compression from the de-spec uncertainty — but still sees memory tight and overall bit demand higher. Net: de-spec is real, but it unlocks more systems, more copper, more optics, and keeps the 2027 power + financing flywheel intact.

Mizuho cut BitGo's target but says CLARITY delays could help The bank lowered its price target to $11 while arguing the Senate's inaction may work in @BitGo's favor. Custody firms already hold state trust charters. A federal framework would open the same business to competitors that currently lack one.