Mizuho: Memory, CPO, 800VDC
> Memory Bottlenecks & De-spec Risks: Potential significant DRAM de-spec risks are driving investor concern. GPU/ASIC OEMs may cap future HBM content at 4-8Hi, making 12Hi less appealing, while 16Hi/20Hi and hybrid bonding remain uncertain for future DRAM generations.
> Impact on Shipments & Demand: GOOGL has scaled down TPUv8 HBM3e to 8Hi. Lower DRAM/GPU content could allow roughly 20-30% more GPU/ASIC shipments, driving higher aggregate DRAM bit demand for training, inference, and KVCache, alongside better margins.
> Connectivity and Hardware Upside: Copper, NPO SiPho, and InP show upside for CRDO and LITE, whereas CPO is roughly 2 to 3 years away. A less-constrained memory environment points to upside for GPU/ASIC shipments and rack scale-up/out connectivity.
> 800V Ramp Delays: Potential 800V delays are allowing for a smoother ramp. Data center installers are pushing back due to near-term power space changes and the need for personnel retraining, with DC racks moving toward OCP ORv3 Diablo bipolar dual-rail 400V racks.
(Via
@sean_________)
$CRDO $LITE $GOOGL $NVDA $MU $DRAM $EWY