Mizuho on SemiAnalysis (rumor mill) channel checks:
"Significant Feynman de-spec risk (potentially ~50%). 16/20Hi HBM + hybrid bonding still highly uncertain. GOOGL already scaled TPUv8 HBM3e to 8Hi."
"Lower HBM content per GPU/ASIC = 20-30% more shipments possible. Aggregate DRAM bit demand for training/inference/KVCache actually rises. Better GPU/ASIC margins."
"That extra silicon volume is pure upside for copper AEC, NPO, SiPho/InP.
$CRDO and $LITE the clearest beneficiaries. CPO still 2-3 years out."
"800V looks delayed — data centers pushing back hard on rapid power architecture change + staff retraining.
Moving to OCP ORv3 Diablo 400V bipolar instead. More VRMs, smoother ramp."
"2027 is still a monster year: xAI/ $SPCX 10GW + the $500B Neocloud financing facility = real tailwind.
$GOOGL morphing into a major Neocloud supplier with accelerating TPU ramps.
Mizuho modestly cuts PTs ( $MU $1,300 / $SNDK $1,875 / AMAT $590 / MKSI $330 / LRCX $365) on multiple compression from the de-spec uncertainty — but still sees memory tight and overall bit demand higher.
Net: de-spec is real, but it unlocks more systems, more copper, more optics, and keeps the 2027 power + financing flywheel intact.