Pantheon Macroeconomics warns stocks must regain momentum and bond spreads must tighten to prevent a weaker labor market in 2027. $SPY $HYG $TLT Tightened financial conditions typically take ~6 months to hit the labor market, driven by Fed rate hikes, AI doubts, and Middle East conflict fears. Flat stock prices since May historically point to a 0.2 percentage point rise in the national unemployment rate. Securities-backed borrowing reached 0.5% of personal income in early 2026, but stock stagnation threatens to reverse those loans. Widening high-yield bond spreads already signal higher joblessness, threatening to push unemployment past 4.5%. It could average 4.5% in 2027 if the Fed tightens further after a December rate hike. Does weak stock performance push unemployment higher in 2027?

Informative macroeconomics doom discussion about China The guest is actually reasonable (despite click bait YT title) and Setser knows what he is talking about. At ~20m: strongest pro/con Industrial Maximalism arguments. Role-playing Xi; natsec and industrialism goals contra normie econ view. Good steel-man exercise; should not be dismissed due to bias.

Happy Labour Day 🎉! Here is a Macroeconomics 101 from Dataline. Trump: oil at $70 → bomb Iran. Oil at $90 → TACO. Bessent: 30Y Treasury hits 5.2% → start talking. Warsh: rate hike odds at 30% → hawk mode. At 70% → full Alibaba shopping cart. Independent yet predictable. Somehow this is how global markets are priced. 🙃 Use Dataline to monitor them all. 👀

Prediction markets are live on Liquid. Trade prediction markets on everything from sports, crypto, macroeconomics and real world events. The October Fed decision is already trading. No rate change is priced at 83%. An increase is around 16%. 15-minute and 1-day up/down contracts are live too, so you can trade whether BTC, HYPE, or a stock finishes above or below a set price. These all run in the same account you already use for pre-IPO perpetuals and the rest of the platform. Prices move as new information comes in. If you think the market has the odds wrong, you can trade against it before the outcome is settled. Trade the markets that are live. More coming soon.

How and what should the Federal Reserve communicate regarding monetary policy? St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem addressed the topic today during an event hosted by @CFMUK (the Centre For Macroeconomics) at @LSEnews (the London School of Economics and Political Science). He shared his view that a central bank should communicate how it turns incoming information into monetary policy – the framework for policy decisions. President Musalem discussed three gains from having a clearly communicated framework: smoother monetary policy transmission, better economic outcomes and stronger accountability to the public. Following his speech, he participated in a Q&A moderated by @R2Rsquared (Ricardo Reis), A. W. Phillips Professor of Economics at LSE. View President Musalem’s remarks:

Mark your calendar: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at 12:30 p.m. CT/1:30 p.m. ET today at an event hosted by @CFMUK (the Centre For Macroeconomics) at @LSEnews (the London School of Economics and Political Science). He will give remarks on central bank communications and participate in a Q&A. Register for the event:

Mark your calendar: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at 12:30 p.m. CT/1:30 p.m. ET Tuesday at an event hosted by @CFMUK (the Centre For Macroeconomics) at @LSEnews (the London School of Economics and Political Science). He will give remarks on central bank communications and participate in a Q&A. Register for the event:

"Debt is becoming a global issue," Managing Director, @IFC_org, @Diop_IFC, discusses geopolitics, and the increase in price of fossil fuels and its adverse affects on macroeconomics. ⏯️ #BloombergGreen# #ClimateWeekNYC#

In 2026H1, China's economy was moving in two directions-- some sectors were booming, and some not so much. Find out more about China's K-shaped economy ⬇️ #ChinaAMC# #investing# #emergingmarkets# #macroeconomics# #personalfinance#