I had a blast being out until 4am with my family and friends at UNVRS in Ibiza for my 77th birthday and thought I’d pass it along to turn you onto it, in case you’re in the neighborhood.

I love everything about the 4th of July, and the 250th anniversary is especially great for me because I am joining with family and friends for a reading of the Declaration of Independence, a BBQ, and fireworks. As I reflect on what has happened over the 250 years that followed July 4th, 1776, it seems like an impossible dream come true. Think about it. Imagine that at the outset on July 4th, 1776, you were asked what odds for success a country would have if it would be mostly made up of poor immigrants coming from all different countries with very different cultures and religions and it would be governed by a political system in which the leaders reported to these people who themselves had to vote, compromise, and submit to life-changing decisions that many disagreed with. Would you bet that it would do exceptionally well and improve for 250 years? I would have thought that virtually impossible, yet America has been exceptional for 250 years. I also see that it was shockingly terrific and lucky for me to have lived through the best part of those 250 years because I was born four years after the 1945 post-World War II beginning of the new American world order, which gave me the best time in history in the best place in the world. These reflections give me a deep appreciation for the principles and practices—the secret sauce—that created and sustained this remarkable American story, a fear that we are losing sight of them, and a sense of responsibility to contribute to sustaining them.

I recently spent a month in Asia, including 10 days in China, where I met with senior policy makers in several countries, and I found that over the past few months, there has been a big shift in the world order. I share my perspective in my latest article.  As always, I welcome your questions and thoughts.

Knowing your nature is critically important to understanding what success is for you. I can't tell you literally what is best for you, but I can tell you that success is not having a lot more money or status than you need. Having the time and freedom to do what you most want to do is far more important. What is success for most people? It is a matter of having meaningful work and meaningful relationships. If you can make your work and your passion one and the same, and do it with people who you care about and care about you, you will have a happy, successful life. Explore Principles for the Graduating Class of 2026 with my AI Twin, Digital Ray in Beta, here:

While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it. Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold. Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system.

People often ask whether China or the West is “winning.” That’s the wrong question. The more useful question is: how do different systems work, and what trade-offs do they make? When you look at history, geopolitics, and economics together, you start to see repeating patterns — and those patterns matter far more than day-to-day noise.

I have been asked by several people what I meant when I said “we are in a world war” in my most recent note. To be clear, I didn’t mean to convey that I expect a shooting war between the U.S. and China (or any of the great powers) anytime soon. What I meant is that we are in the phase of the Big Cycle when major powers are in military wars and that the various wars happening now are interrelated, hence we are in a “world war," with the sides lined up as I described and with the implications for each of the main players and the whole unfolding in relatively classic interrelated ways that I describe as a progression of the Big Cycle. For example, it is now widely believed that if the U.S. fails to open the Strait of Hormuz to have free shipping and to protect its Gulf Allies from attacks, countries all around the world (most importantly in Asia) will conclude that the U.S. might not be the strong ally and countervailing force to China that they thought it would be. which will lead some to tilt economically and geopolitically more toward China in a number of ways - e.g. to buy less U.S. debt (which is what happened to the British in the Suez Crisis, bringing about the ultimate end of their Empire) - and it could lead others to build up their military capabilities.  As I complete my nearly three-week trip in Asia, I can convey that what I am saying is based on a lot more than conjecture. The reason I do not expect a U.S.-China military war soon, but I do expect a lot of brinksmanship, is because both nations realize that such a war would be devastating and that it would be impossible to fully win over the other, at the same time as they won’t want to give much.  Also, each country believes in its own economic and political systems and that the outcomes of those systems will determine their relative powers. And both nations have critically important domestic issues to deal with.  Some people in leadership positions, especially in China, believe that the relative health, wealth, and power levels between countries is not as important as their own absolute health, wealth, and power levels, and that helping each other build these rather than tear them down is most important. For example, they believe that the world will be a dangerous place if the U.S. and China don't have AI cooperations and controls, and they are concerned that AI can be weaponized. Most countries know that most wars in history were won by one of the sides secretly developing new technologically advanced weapons and showing them to their opponents. So, I believe that both sides think that their wars will be non-military wars that will yield evolutionary changes in relative powers.  As for how the Chinese will fight, and how the world order related to it will evolve, it will probably look more like the type of war described in the “Art of War” (which I suggest you read if you haven't), and for how the new international world order will evolve, to the extent that it is influenced by the Chinese, it will evolve to be more like the tribute system (which I suggest you understand if you don’t) than the existing world order. At the same time, I expect that there will continue to be trade, capital, technology, cyber, and geopolitical influence wars between these great powers and that both will continue to have justifiable fears of being cut off from essential goods, services, and capital that will necessarily will greatly reduce imbalances and interdependencies as well as efficiencies in production and trade of goods, services, and capital. I also believe we will increasingly see these two powerful nations pressure each other because there is no other way to resolve disputes now that the rules-based multilateral world order has been replaced by a power-based, self-serving world order. Said differently, I expect that China will be very strong in its defense without being very aggressive in its offense.  That is not just for tactical reasons; it is also because China has strong cultural inclinations to be that way. I hope this is helpful in clarifying my thinking and as always I'd be happy to answer any other questions or hear your thoughts. Ray