QUANTS--WE ARE IN A KOIZUMI TYPE RALLY: Nikko quants differentiate current Japan rally from dotcom rally, pointing to concomitant strength in Topix (bank-heavy) and momentum (growth names) in current (7/25-present) and Koizumi ('05-'06) rallies. Earnings-driven rallies are characterized by shallower drawdowns whereas multiple-expansion driven rallies have historically collapsed more rapidly and unpredictably.

PASSIVES, MLCCs: NIKKO report today. +ve outlook on AI-driven demand cycle. Qualitatively different than the '17/'18 EV cycle or the '13-15 smartphone cycle. "Assuming the current upswing is driven by AI, then the tech upcycle this time is different to past ones that were driven by consumer demand. We think the current cycle is driven by government investment into AI given increased concern over national security. The number of end-products is smaller, but there are more electronic components per end-product, and these components are often high in margin. This means gains in unit prices will contribute more to profit growth than in past cycles, and demand from DCs has been strong enough to offset the slowdown in consumer demand. As a result, OPMs are approaching the peak levels recorded during the IT bubble period." ...However, if you are buying these names here, you probably take the view that consensus estimates are still underestimating the operating leverage in these businesses and we are likely to see big overshoots in the next 2 years.

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Doctors in Sweden should be allowed to recommend snus to smokers who do not want to quit, says @nikeorbrink. On @SmokelessWord: Cuts, she explains why THR products should be offered to smokers ready to switch.

Throw back some photos during last weekend’s Nikke offline event at hakkenonline !! Thanks for having me!! The event is still going on and pls grab your chance to visit 🥰🥰 放点上周在Nikke 1.5周年的活动照片！ #nikkerapi# #rapicosplay# #nikkecosplay#