PPI Red Hot:
PPI 1.3% MoM, Exp. 0.6%
PPI 6.3% YoY, Exp. 5.4%
PPI Core 0.7% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
PPI Core 5.0% YoY, Exp. 4.4%
ppl are not pricing in pump essentially becoming an L1 as underlying infra for other launchpads on top
nobody is tracking how much they are giving away in creator fees, its nearly 1 to 1 with the amount of revenue they're making, so teams are highly incentivized to just build on top, for every $500M in rev there's ~$500M in creator fees to coin creators bc of the fee structure post-bonding
& the economics are much better than L1 economics because pump benefits from getting fees from every launchpad layer *and* every coin from every launchpad
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ppl are not pricing in pump essentially becoming an L1 as underlying infra for other launchpads on top
nobody is tracking how much they are giving away in creator fees, its nearly 1 to 1 with the amount of revenue they're making, so teams are highly incentivized to just build on top, for every $500M in rev there's ~$500M in creator fees to coin creators bc of the fee structure post-bonding
& the economics are much better than L1 economics because pump benefits from getting fees every launchpad layer *and* every coin from every launchpad
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ppl have such short memories with AI
openai was ahead for months, then opus 5.5 gets one great week, and suddenly everyone acts like oai is finished
the funniest part is X spent months complaining about anthropic's limits, nerfs, and models falling behind, and now the sentiment around oai is starting to look the same
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PPLUS launched yesterday, and today's update reported the daily yield at 21.08% (11.84% 30D avg).
If you deposit your PPLUS on suilend or bluefin lend, you get a boosted yield of 25.06%.
pay close attention to PPLUS 👀
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ppl really be spending thousands on ads, emails and inboxes, launch videos and so on
but wont spend a couple of hours each week to make sure that llm's recommend them when a potential user asks
its literally free traffic and free users but everyone ive talked to puts it off cuz its a black box and it feels not as pressing
this could be you 🫶 lock in
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PPI pushed September rate hike odds up in the futures markets. The Fed Funds futures implied odds of a September hike increased to 68%.
Today's move is different in an important way. The longer end of the SOFR and Fed Fund futures curves moved notably as well. The SOFR curve has moved up between 10-11.5 bps through all 27 and 28 contracts. Basically, pricing in ~40% higher chance of an extra hike. This is a change from recent volatility that largely moved the timing of fed increases but had relatively small impact on the final level of the expected hiking cycle.
The SOFR move is reflected in the FF futures where the implied probability of one or two hikes by June 27 decreased and the probability of 3+ hikes increased notably (from 52% to 67%)
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PPI portfolio management was down in August
We're tracking for another downtick this month, that's for sure! $SPY $AGG
PPI for final demand moves up 0.4% in August; goods advance 1.1%, services rise 0.1% #
BLSData#
PPI could be the bigger mover than CPI next week purely because of the schedule. PPI lands Thursday, CPI Friday. If PPI comes in hot, market participants will not wait 24 hours for CPI confirmation. Hawkish Fed bets go on immediately.
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