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Knockout Earnings & Valuation Dislocation: The Quant Case for Seagate ($STX) Short-term price weakness and pre-midterm seasonality across the AI ecosystem often obscure fundamental strength. Seagate Technology ($STX) reported blowout quarterly results, powered by data center demand which triggered strong quantitative factor grades across Growth and Profitability. The Key Valuation Metrics: - PRO Quant Portfolio Holding: Added to the PRO Quant Portfolio (PQP) in mid-September as a high-conviction, under-the-radar AI hardware play. - Knockout Top-Line Acceleration: Quarterly revenue surged ~60% YoY, with data center infrastructure accounting for roughly 80% of total sales. - Stellar Forward EPS Growth: Features a 92% forward EPS growth rate (385% above the sector) and a 75% 3-to-5 year EPS CAGR. - Growth-Adjusted Value: Trades at an ~80% discount to the sector on a price-to-earnings growth basis and a 35% discount on GAAP P/E. - A+ Profitability Engine: Generates a 26% net income margin (331% above sector) and over $3B in operating cash flow alongside an announced forward dividend. Emma Johnston's Take: "When you look at the current opportunity compared to those growth and profitability metrics, this pullback is a pretty enticing opportunity... With factor grades like this and some of that fear receding... we could potentially see the stock take off." #Investing# #StockMarket# #Seagate# #STX# #AI# #DataCenters# #QuantInvesting# #ProQuant# #SeekingAlpha#
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Rate Beneficiary: The Quant Case for Allstate ($ALL) While rising interest rates and yield spikes often pressure mortgage-heavy lenders, property and casualty insurers like Allstate ($ALL) can capitalize on wider investment spreads. Featured in the Quant Growth & Income portfolio,$ALL combines defensive income stability with accelerating fundamental growth. The Key Valuation Metrics: - Rate-Resilient Business Model: P&C focus avoids mortgage origination headwinds while higher bond yields boost reinvestment income on policy floats. - 12-Quarter Earnings Beat Streak: Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS reached $8.99 (beating by $2.92) with revenues rising 11.8% YoY. - A+ Profitability & High ROE: Delivers a massive 49% Return on Equity (vs. sector median of 12%) alongside strong operational cash generation. - Growth-Adjusted Value: Trades at a Forward P/E of 7.2x (a 35% sector discount), with its valuation grade improving to B- and growth climbing to B+. Steven's Take: "Insurance has been good. And actually they can be a benefactor when rates go up... They could actually invest in notes or government bonds that have higher yields... We anticipate Allstate will do well off of that." #Investing# #StockMarket# #Allstate# #ALL# #QuantInvesting# #Dividends# #Insurance# #SeekingAlpha# #ValueInvesting#
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Logistics: 1. First Quant Investing lecture at Columbia today. See you in Kravis @ 6pm 2. In London next week 3. Talk at BAML quant conference on 9/17