CAN ALL OF THE TESLA CREATORS STOP PERPETUATING INACCURATE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FLEET CROSSING 1,000 ROBOTAXIS
No, Tesla does not have over 1,000 Robotaxis in operation. Nor do they even have 1,000 Robotaxis in the fleet. Any vehicle being tracked in the Bay Area is not a Robotaxi, that is still a ridehail service only with supervisors. Until Tesla obtains the required permits for Robotaxi operation in California, including those vehicles is misleading
Tesla only has 439 vehicles registered for Robotaxi operation in all of Texas. That is NOT the same as how many are operational at any given time. The operational count is materially lower, at least for now
In Florida, the only other state with active Robotaxi cities, Tesla likely has ~15 active vehicles at any given time in each city and some anecdotal reports mention it's closer to 5 active vehicles/city
So AT MOST, Tesla has somewhere around 500 vehicles in the Robotaxi fleet, and the number that are operating (giving public rides) on any given day is likely much closer to 300 $TSLA
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Hot take: Tesla's slower than expected Robotaxi rollout really doesn't matter at all for competitive positioning
Recent reporting shows Waymo's Ojai vehicle, after accounting for import tariffs and sensor suite installation, is still ~$100,000 per vehicle before it's ready for operations
An Ojai was just involved in a collision and the Waymo service still has just as many if not more quirks per mile than Tesla's Robotaxi service
The Cybercab should land ~$25k before its ready for road operations. On cost alone, Tesla is WAY ahead of Waymo and it's not close and Waymo seemingly has no viable path to meaningfully close that gap anytime soon
Tesla's autonomous software is also operating in 13 countries globally. Waymo is operating (including testing) in 3. Excluding China, Tesla's ability to gather robust data globally will further strengthen the V15 model in the US
Waymo is not running away with scale and still has a very long, uncertain road to profitability. Tesla knows it does not need to rush anything at this stage. No one, including Waymo, is really a threat to Tesla dominating the autonomous ridehail market
Tesla remains in the dominant position with its cost structure, global operations, vertical integration and manufacturing footprint. Rushing things now would be foolish $TSLA
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Q4 Shareholder Update →
— Highlights
2025 marked a critical year for Tesla as we further expanded our mission & continued our transition from a hardware-centric business to a physical AI company.
We also laid the foundation for the future of Tesla by further advancing FSD Supervised, launching our Robotaxi service, beginning to install production lines for Cybercab & fine-tuned our production-primed Optimus design while expanding our AI training infrastructure.
In 2026, we will further invest in the infrastructure needed to support clean energy + transport as well as autonomous robots.
This includes the ramp of 6 new production lines across vehicle, robots, energy storage & battery manufacturing.
We're building a world of amazing abundance. LFG!
Automotive
– APAC region continues to show strength across multiple markets & set a record for deliveries this quarter
– Preparations in North America continue for the production ramps of Tesla Semi & Cybercab, both commencing in the first half of 2026 & production of the next gen Roadster
Energy generation + storage
– Highest quarterly energy storage deployments, driven by record Megapack deployments
– Total gross profit = $1.1 billion, marking our 5th consecutive record quarter!
– Megapack 3 & Megablock production starting at Megafactory Houston this year
– In 2025, Powerwall network supported more than 89k Virtual Power Plant events across >1 million installed units, saving homeowners >$1 billion in electricity bills
Robotics
– Planning to unveil Optimus Gen 3 in Q1 this year, our first design meant for mass production
– Start of production planned by end of 2026, with eventual planned capacity of 1 million robots/year
AI Training Compute
– Currently building Cortex 2 at Giga Texas to further increase our AI training compute capacity
– In the first half of 2026, we're planning to more than double the size of onsite compute in Texas (in terms of H100 equivalents)
Battery
– Our lithium refinery started pilot production. It is the first spodumene to lithium hydroxide refinery in North America, with a simpler, cheaper & more environmentally friendly process
– Started producing battery packs for certain Model Ys with our 4680 cells, unlocking an additional vector of supply
– We now produce dry electrode for 4680 cells with both anode + cathode made in Austin
– We expect both domestic cathode material in Austin & LFP lines in Nevada to begin production this year
AI Software
– Shipped latest version of FSD Supervised (V14), which will drive you to your destination, find a free spot & park
AI Inference Compute
– Development of our in-house, custom designed AI5 & AI6 inference chips for autonomy progressed during Q4, with production planned for 2027 & 2028 respectively
– Targeting a 50x improvement for AI5 compared to AI4, thanks to 10x raw compute, 9x memory capacity & 5x hardened block quantization & softmax function (= enabling efficient low precision computing without sacrificing model accuracy)
Automotive + Other Software
– Robotaxi app no longer has a waitlist in the areas we serve
– Our vehicles keep getting better with over-the-air software updates: Grok w/ navigation commands, Photobooth, Supercharger Site Maps, Automatic HOV Routing, & more
Robotaxi
– Began testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin in December & began removing safety monitor from customer rides in January
– Our Bay Area ridehailing service now serves SJC, with plans to expand to other Bay Area airports upon receiving required permitting
– Cumulative paid Robotaxi miles have now exceeded 600k
FSD Supervised
– Launched in Korea, where customers drove >1 million kilometers in just one month
– We continue to pursue regulatory approval in China & Europe
– FSD Supervised subscriptions more than doubled in 2025
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