Sam Korus
@skorusARK
Director of Strategy and Investment @ARKinvest.
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99%+ cost declines for chips, batteries, power electronics, and motors over ~34 years.
...AI declining in cost 99%+ annually.
A clean, electrified energy system has been a dream for decades. Thirty years ago the core components existed, but they weren't economical.
That has changed. Chips, batteries, power electronics, motors and sensors have each fallen over 97% in price.
It's best to recognise a shift early. Second best is to act on it when it's staring us in the face.
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More people need to be monitoring methane sat data
The scale of China's solar output is incredible.
For context, SpaceX and Tesla each looking to do 100GW of solar annually.
As Starlink v3 sats get ready to go:
It's not rocket science.
~$19M in connectivity revenue per Tbps
61 Tbps per Starship launch
$19M * 61 = ~$1 billion in rev per starship launch
Falcon 9 launched 165 times last year.
The revenue per Tbps will decay, that's ok and expected.
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You can lead a human to exponentials, but you can’t make them grok it.
Starlink V3 constellation starts being deployed this month.
Ultimately, it will deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of our current 11,000 satellite constellation.
In the same way we have “the royal we,” I think we need “the little a, I”
As in, I did it and I put thought into this, but obviously I also used AI.
Q: “Did you make this design?”
A: “Yes aI did.” (Pronounced I)
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Buffett: Be greedy when other are fearful
US labs: fearful
China labs:
Building through the "bear market"
And people don't appreciate that EVs as % of vehicle sales will give way to
% of vehicle miles travelled that are electric,
which should accelerate with robotaxis that are utilized far more than traditional vehicles.
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at its cybercab event Tesla disclosed it had completed 1 million driverless robotaxi miles
5 days later its run-rate seems to be 15x that.
Active users fast approaching Waymo's (with the miles per active user discrepancy likely due to current restricted car supply.)
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Guy who just got passed:
“I think we should all slow down a bit”
Literally saw this on training runs in high school, funny to see it in a multi trillion dollar industry.
Don't gatekeep AI
AI is going to cause these kinds of ego driven guild backlashes all over the place, my guess is especially in the medical world
Mathematicians hating AI simply because it’s better than them at their job is kinda hilarious and sad
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The questions is:
should the world have more access to intelligence or less?
If less, why and where do you draw the line? Who gets to decide who has access to intelligence and learning?
P(abundance) is the highest it’s ever been and increasing.
…and the doomers agree
Flywheels work in both directions.
When modeling robotaxis taking share from Uber I think the risk is more reflexive than people appreciate:
AVs skim the dense, high-utilization trips → driver $/hour breaks → supply exits → Uber must charge more as AVs charge less. The flywheel that built Uber runs in reverse just as well.
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Thinking about orbital compute a bit and whether the ladder comes up behind first movers:
There is an interesting timing dynamic here that feels similar to what happened with EVs.
Investing in orbital compute when compute is priced at a massive premium lets you work through the hardest part of the cost curve.
Others can say, “maybe it gets cheaper, maybe it doesn’t,” and keep harvesting terrestrial compute profits today.
But if/when the orbital cost curve does bend, there may be a period where early movers have already built the launch experience, operating know-how, customer relationships, and supply-chain position that make them hard to follow.
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Imagine if the first time someone got shocked by electricity we stopped exploring how it could be used because it's "super dangerous."
The AI models shocked people.
It's not rocket science.
~$19M in connectivity revenue per Tbps
61 Tbps per Starship launch
$19M * 61 = ~$1 billion in rev per starship launch
Falcon 9 launched 165 times last year.
The revenue per Tbps will decay, that's ok and expected.
Show more
I’ve been saying for a while that people assume the world is very connected today, but they have no idea how connected the world can be in the future.
