CHINESE RARE EARTH SUPPLIERS HALT SOME U.S. SHIPMENTS Some Chinese suppliers are refusing to ship rare earths to U.S. customers even after receiving export licenses, fearing repercussions from Beijing, Reuters reports. The issue has now moved onto the U.S. agenda ahead of Xi Jinping’s Sept. 24 Washington visit, with Washington pressing China to uphold commitments on smoother export approvals. Supply remains tight in materials critical to defense, aerospace, semiconductors and energy. U.S. yttrium imports from China are still only about half 2024 levels, while some companies have waited more than six months for licenses. Japan is facing even tighter restrictions, with China shipping no terbium to Japan through August, while yttrium exports fell 98% YoY.

China reportedly halts some rare earth shipments to US. Not a new blanket ban, or any mention of specific rare earths. But… if I had to guess, Japan is usually a decent indicator of what’s actively important since Japan: - “sources virtually all of its dysprosium and terbium from China.” - gallium, dysprosium, terbium and yttrium from China to Japan all stood at “zero” in June. - Shin-Etsu Chemical has reportedly suspended acceptance of new orders for magnets containing dysprosium. - Global magnet producer Proterial had received no export licenses for Chinese dysprosium as of last month The Reuters piece mentioned yttrium, gallium, terbium, indium phosphide, and tungsten as historical examples (doesn’t say what’s being targeted now). On a side note, $LYC.AX is becoming one of the most important alternatives, as Japan has locked up 75% of Lynas’s medium/heavy rare-earth output. (8 tons of dysprosium + terbium in Q1) Something fun I also read is that Japan’s deep sea resource is enormous (est. at 16 million tons of rare earth rich mud, but commercialization is post-2028) But in the meantime, China seem to be choking off feedstock that would materially affect Japan. Since you’ve already seen the WF6 Japanese industry stressed from tungsten related halts. And indium/others earlier this year that is used to make InP substrates from Sumitomo/JX. But still gradually allowing exports directly eg. $AXTI -> $LITE to allow US/China trade to continue, kinda disrupting that from time to time, then using that as leverage. It’s interesting since Japan has so many different monopolies like ABF, so we’ll see if they do anything back. But if I had to give a prediction, it does look like the US has a countdown timer until China becomes self-sufficient on semiconductors. TLDR: - rare earth disruption to US - China actively targeting Japan for upstream feedstock (which goes to Us supply chains), probably want to focus on that - many many second/third order effects from disruptions - we’ll see what US/Japan wants to do back, but supply chain wars are being fought upstream.

Critical minerals and rare earths are essential to the energy and AI sectors—driving dealmaking, institutional investments, and US government partnerships. Read more from Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets:

Astra on the performance of rare-earths equities before/after Trump admin equity stakes. The admin is really good at predicting which equities’ short-term outperformance will persist.

🔊 Donald Trump’s tariffs and Chinese rare earths have scrambled global commerce. Yet as Ed Conway describes in ‘Trade World,’ rulers have wielded chokepoints for centuries, with mixed results. On The Big View, he says that advantages rarely last

🔊 Donald Trump’s tariffs and Chinese rare earths have scrambled global commerce. Yet as Ed Conway describes in ‘Trade World,’ rulers have wielded chokepoints for centuries, with mixed results. On The Big View, he says that advantages rarely last

🔊 Donald Trump’s tariffs and Chinese rare earths have scrambled global commerce. Yet as Ed Conway describes in ‘Trade World,’ rulers have wielded chokepoints for centuries, with mixed results. On The Big View, he says that advantages rarely last

🔊 Donald Trump’s tariffs and Chinese rare earths have scrambled global commerce. Yet as Ed Conway describes in ‘Trade World,’ rulers have wielded chokepoints for centuries, with mixed results. On The Big View, he says that advantages rarely last