As physical crude prices spiked, liquidity began to dry up in the European market, with some sellers choosing to sit on barrels rather than put a price on them amid the extreme volatility. The scale of the squeeze was evident in Norwegian crude, which was reportedly commanding premiums of more than $30 per barrel last week. (thanks for the datapoints
@AdiSurreyEnergy)
That scramble began to unwind once Saudi Arabia indicated that the East-West pipeline was being repaired and, crucially, that exports could be redirected through its eastern terminals.
With the immediate supply panic fading (at market open today), barrels that were withheld at the height of the rally are now coming back onto the market, forcing sellers to cut their offers progressively to find buyers.
But oil is not out of the woods yet. Another strike by IRGC-linked militias or the Houthis on a critical part of Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure could quickly send prices back toward $110 per barrel.