SpaceX is increasingly positioning AI as an important part of its future. But I don’t think the real question is whether SpaceX is becoming an AI company. The more important question is whether SpaceX can connect AI computing, Starlink, and Starship into one vertically integrated infrastructure business. The strategy can be viewed like this: AI revenue → Ground-based AI computing → Starlink connectivity → Starship launches → Orbital AI infrastructure → AI and robotics for the Moon and Mars SpaceX already has two key pieces of this system. Starlink can provide the communications layer between users, satellites, and future orbital computing infrastructure. Starship could provide the transportation layer needed to move large amounts of computing hardware, solar arrays, networking equipment, and thermal systems into orbit. AI could become the demand layer that connects both. However, AI revenue is not the same as AI profit. Large-scale AI infrastructure requires massive investment in GPUs, power, cooling, networking, construction, maintenance, and talent. So the important metrics are not just revenue, but also utilization, margins, capital expenditure, free cash flow, and payback periods. The same applies to SpaceX’s roughly 10GW-per-year orbital computing scenario. 10GW shows scale, but it does not directly tell us AI performance, revenue, or profitability. Orbital computing also creates major engineering challenges, including heat rejection, radiation, maintenance, debris, communications capacity, and hardware replacement. That is why Starship economics matter so much. The key metrics are actual cost per kilogram to orbit, launch frequency, reuse turnaround time, maintenance cost, and reliability. For me, the most important sequence to watch is: AI profitability → Ground computing utilization → Starship launch economics → Orbital AI demonstrations The real question is not whether SpaceX is a rocket company or an AI company. It is whether SpaceX can turn the transportation and connectivity advantages created by Starship and Starlink into profitable AI infrastructure. If it can, SpaceX may become much more than a launch company. It could evolve into a vertically integrated infrastructure platform spanning Earth and space. #SpaceX# #ElonMusk# #Starship# #Starlink# #ArtificialIntelligence#

SpaceX is going to start looking crazy cheap if you believe what management is saying. $SPCX today is still ~$1.9T market cap / ~$1.8T enterprise value. On the last twelve months of sales (~$23B), that’s roughly ~80x for EV/Sales. On today’s numbers… it is expensive, ofc. But these multiples will start compressive drastically if what Elon said on the earnings call becomes true. 1/ $100B ARR by December 2026 “It’s not a question mark… that’s what we would achieve if we basically did nothing.” - Elon Musk Hold today’s EV fixed and put $100B in the denominator: The multiple of ~80x becomes → ~18x EV/ARR 2/ $1T revenue by 2030 This was the surprise imo. The long-term internal target was moved up… it was 2031 before and Elon even mentioned that there’s a non-zero chance of getting there in 2029. The multiple of ~80x becomes → ~1.8x EV/Sales Either Elon and the SpaceX management is wrong about $100B ARR + $1T revenue, or the market is still pricing SpaceX like the denominator will never shows up. If you believe this will become true, which I do, this company is dirt cheap today.