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Merkle3s Weekly Recap: US-Iran ceasefire framework lands as oil peaks; Warsh's FOMC debut all but certain to hold — World Cup ignites prediction markets, Hyperliquid SPCX perps hit $1.4B on day one 1️⃣ Macro: Rates Peak, Volatility Persists ➡️ The US and Iran reached a framework to end hostilities, with formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland and the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen shortly after. Shipments through the strait have already rebounded and supply-demand stays tightly balanced — even if the deal hits a snag, oil likely holds below $90, with diminishing market impact ➡️ May headline and core CPI both came in below expectations MoM. With US gasoline prices falling, May is likely the year's inflation peak, and June CPI looks set to turn negative MoM. Two hikes this year are unlikely — a single cut remains on the table. The case for further upside in long-end Treasuries has evaporated, and the center of gravity will drift lower. This sets up a year-defining allocation window for gold ➡️ The June 18 FOMC is Chair Warsh's first, with markets pricing a 98%–99% chance of holding at 3.50%–3.75%. Watch for dot-plot upward revisions that could rattle sentiment, but any bounce is likely still a topping pattern ➡️ US equities have entered a high-volatility regime. South Korea's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker last week (opening down over 8%), driven by excessive semiconductor leverage and retail-concentrated positioning. The technical correction looks complete for now, but the underlying issues remain unresolved — a final 10%–15% drawdown can't be ruled out, though this stops short of a bear market call 2️⃣ Prediction Markets: World Cup Kicks Off a Volume Surge ➡️ The 2026 FIFA World Cup (co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico — 48 teams, 104 matches) is underway. Polymarket's World Cup winner market alone has topped $1.8B, with 878 related markets collectively breaking $2B — a platform record for sports prediction markets ➡️ Kalshi's equivalent winner contract stands at roughly $121M, about 1/15th of Polymarket's. Still, Kalshi's ~$6B 30-day volume leads Polymarket's $4B; on OI, Kalshi sits at ~$833M vs. Polymarket's ~$486M 3️⃣ Perp DEX: Range-Bound Volume Pulls Back, HIP-3 Share Keeps Climbing ➡️ Crypto traded in a tight range last week, with BTC oscillating between $61,000–$63,500 and overall volume declining. BTC now sits at roughly $65,700, with total crypto market cap at ~$2.25 trillion ➡️ Hyperliquid's HIP-3 (TradFi asset perps) volume keeps rising, reaching as much as 64% of total platform volume within a single 24-hour window. Cumulative equity perp volume has topped $10B. The S&P 500 perp alone has reached $721M in OI, generating over $918K in fees from a single market 4️⃣ Hyperliquid × SpaceX IPO: Price Discovery Narrative Validated Again ➡️ After SpaceX listed last Friday, the $SPCX perpetual on Hyperliquid saw $1.4B in day-one volume, 30% of the HIP-3 total. Pre-listing volume exceeded $450M across 917,000 trades, with OI peaking above $100M ➡️ Hyperliquid's pre-IPO price discovery on SpaceX proved accurate, closely tracking the actual opening price and further cementing the narrative. Unlike Robinhood, Coinbase, and Binance, which saw outages or refunds during the IPO window, Hyperliquid executed without disruption, reinforcing its 24/7 uptime and high-concurrency edge 5️⃣ RWA: The SPCX Tokenized Issuance Controversy ➡️ xStocks issued tokenized SpaceX shares (SPCXx) via Kraken, Bybit, and other platforms, supporting USDC subscriptions with 1:1 real equity backing and no lockup — allocated shares become immediately tradable onchain. This marks an early experiment in tokenized primary-market IPO issuance ➡️ Issues in xStocks' issuance and allocation process hit the vast majority of participating exchanges, leaving large numbers of users unable to subscribe as expected — and community frustration keeps building. The SpaceX IPO was heavily oversubscribed, and retail allocations through traditional channels are expected to be minimal ➡️ The core distinction between tokenized shares and perpetuals has sparked debate: the former carries 1:1 backing with real equity rights, the latter a pure price bet with no voting power. Allocation fairness, instant liquidity vs. stability, and whether retail end up as exit liquidity have become the main points of contention.

SPCX became a live example of Binance’s full-market access loop: price exposure before IPO, direct stock access after listing, and tokenized bStock utility on-chain. Here’s how global demand for one of the world’s most-watched companies translated into activity across Binance products 👉

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