Merkle3s Weekly Recap: June nonfarm payrolls massively miss expectations; BTC rebounds from $58,000 to $64,000; Strategy sells BTC for the first time to fund dividends, sending ripples through the market; Robinhood Chain goes live — tokenized equities enter the brokerage-owned chain era; CLARITY Act final text expected July 4 1️⃣ Macro: NFP Shock, Warsh Shifts Tone ➡️ June nonfarm payrolls came in at just +57K (vs. +113K expected), with April–May revised down by a combined 74K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate plunged to 61.5% (lowest since March 2021) as workers dropped out of the labor force. Leisure & hospitality shed 61K jobs in a single month — unusual heading into summer ➡️ At the ECB Sintra Forum on July 1, Warsh said inflation remains "too high" but risks have moderated, highlighting AI-driven productivity gains as a "significant disinflationary force." The tone was softer than his first FOMC meeting but he firmly rejected cutting rates under political pressure. The June FOMC minutes (Warsh's first meeting) drop July 8 — markets will scrutinize the arguments behind the 9 members who penciled in hikes ➡️ Classic "bad news is good news" reaction: stocks rallied, the dollar weakened, and gold/BTC bounced after the NFP miss. July hike odds fell to single digits, but the July 14 CPI report is the next key test 2️⃣ BTC: $58,000 → $64,000 Rebound, Strategy Sells BTC for the First Time ➡️ opened the month around $58,300 and rebounded to roughly $64,000, a ~7% weekly gain. The Fear & Greed Index recovered from 12 but remains in Extreme Fear territory. The 200-week MA (~$61,000–62,000) has been reclaimed as near-term technical support ➡️ Strategy sold 3,588 BTC (~$216M) between June 29 and July 5 to fund dividends on $STRF, $STRE, $STRK, $STRD, and $STRC. This marks Strategy's first meaningful BTC sale in years — representing only ~0.4% of total holdings (843,775 BTC) — but the market reacted sharply, with BTC briefly dipping to ~$61,000 on the news. Saylor emphasized this is routine capital structure management, not a strategic shift 3️⃣ Robinhood Chain Goes Live — Tokenized Equities Enter the Brokerage-Owned Chain Era ➡️ On July 1, Robinhood officially launched its own blockchain (built on Arbitrum), integrating DeFi protocols for tokenized stocks, RWA, perpetuals, and lending. Day-one partners include Uniswap (AMM), Morpho (lending), Chainlink (oracles), and 1inch (aggregator) ➡️ Why it matters: a major brokerage managing tens of billions in crypto assets now controls its own on-chain infrastructure, enabling 24/7 tokenized equity trading across 120+ countries. This marks RWA's shift from "third-party protocol issuance" to "brokerage-owned chain" infrastructure 4️⃣ Prediction Markets: World Cup Keeps Fueling Volume, Polymarket Monthly Volume Tops $10B ➡️ Polymarket recorded approximately $10.26–10.8B in June volume (up ~45% MoM), with the World Cup contributing over $6.6B. The broader prediction market industry (Kalshi + Polymarket + Polymarket US) hit ~$44.8–45B in June (up ~75% MoM) ➡️ Knockout rounds continue drawing massive capital: England vs. Mexico ~$58M, Portugal vs. Spain ~$29.9M. Prop markets have even emerged — "Will Ronaldo cry at the World Cup?" saw $2.6M in 24-hour volume with sharp probability swings 5️⃣ Pump fun: Daily Revenue Among DeFi's Top Two ➡️ Pump fun generates approximately $800–850K in daily revenue, annualizing to ~$398M in fees, with cumulative revenue approaching $1B. 50% of net revenue is programmatically routed to $PUMP buybacks and burns, maintaining a deflationary flywheel ➡️ ~25,000–31,500 new tokens launched daily, sustaining 60%+ market share. $PUMP currently trades at ~1.9x annualized revenue — a relatively low valuation multiple 6️⃣ CLARITY Act Final Text Expected July 4, Floor Vote by Month-End ➡️ Senator Lummis plans to release the CLARITY Act's final text on July 4, with a Senate floor vote targeted after the chamber reconvenes on July 13. SEC Chair Atkins is simultaneously advancing "Project Crypto," publicly committing to making the US the "crypto capital of the world" ➡️ Trump made multiple pro-crypto remarks this week, calling himself a "big crypto fan." The DOJ is working with Treasury and Commerce to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve under the March 2025 executive order

Merkle3s Weekly Recap: Rising Treasury yields continue to pressure risk assets as BTC ETFs post a record $4.06B monthly outflow; USDT surpasses ETH to become the second-largest crypto asset; Morgan Stanley files for ETH/SOL spot ETFs; CLARITY Act clears the Senate Banking Committee — regulatory framework comes into focus 1️⃣ Macro: DXY Hits One-Year High, Treasuries Under Pressure, Inflation Rebounds ➡️ The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to ~101, a one-year high, closing above its 100-week moving average for the first time since February 2025 ➡️ Long-end Treasury yields continue to push higher (10Y approaching 4.5%), as Fed rate-cut expectations narrow (50–70% probability of a hike priced in for year-end). Rising Nikkei 225 volatility and unusual swings in Korean equities signal tightening global liquidity conditions ➡️ Near-term impact: persistent DXY strength creates a classic headwind for BTC and crypto, as capital rotates into dollars and Treasuries — further tightening crypto market liquidity 2️⃣ BTC in Deep Bear Territory: Record ETF Outflows, Fear Index Bottoms Out ➡️ sits at roughly $60,000, down ~52% from its October 2025 ATH (~$126,000). The Fear & Greed Index dropped as low as 12 (Extreme Fear) — the lowest reading of the current cycle ➡️ US spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $4.06B in net outflows in June, a record monthly high (previous record: $3.56B in February 2025). Seven consecutive weeks of net redemptions, with a single-week peak of ~$1.8B. BlackRock IBIT saw ~$2.1B in outflows, Grayscale GBTC ~$1.2B ➡️ fell to roughly $1,550. Tether $USDT market cap broke through $186B, surpassing ETH (~$185B) for the first time to become the second-largest crypto asset. This marks the first time a stablecoin has overtaken ETH — a reflection of capital consolidating into on-chain dollars during risk-off periods 3️⃣ US Semiconductor: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News — Antitrust Suit Resurfaces ➡️ Micron $MU reported FY26 Q3 earnings on June 24 that massively beat expectations: revenue of $41.46B (vs. ~$35.9B expected), adjusted EPS of $25.11 (vs. ~$20.50), gross margins at ~85%. Q4 guidance was equally strong (revenue ~$50B, EPS ~$31). AI-driven HBM memory demand continues to surge, with 2026 capacity fully sold out and some analysts raising long-term price targets to $1,870–$2,000 ➡️ But it was a classic sell the news — shares spiked 15% after hours, then reversed entirely over the following sessions, at one point plunging ~8% intraday (erasing ~$80B in market cap). Compounding the sell-off: a June 25 antitrust class-action lawsuit alleging the three memory giants restricted consumer DRAM capacity, diverted production to HBM, and artificially inflated prices by ~700% ➡️ The core tension: the AI memory supercycle vs. the AI tax on consumer memory pricing. Elevated semiconductor leverage and crowded retail positioning remain unresolved 4️⃣ Morgan Stanley Files for ETH/SOL Spot ETF — Competition Shifts to Fee Wars ➡️ Morgan Stanley filed S-1 registrations for ETH and SOL spot ETFs on June 23, with an annual fee of just 0.14% — undercutting BlackRock (0.25%) and Bitwise (0.20%). The ETH product returns 95% of staking rewards to investors, with Galaxy Digital serving as custodian ➡️ This signals traditional finance giants now competing for crypto ETF market share via low fees + staking yield strategies. Fidelity, VanEck, 21Shares, and others have filed or updated S-1s with staking components. The ETF race is shifting from "can you buy it?" to "who's cheapest and who pays the most yield" 5️⃣ CLARITY Act Clears Senate Banking Committee — July Is the Make-or-Break Window ➡️ The crypto market structure bill CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15–9 vote and has been placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar. Senator Lummis is pushing for a floor vote after the Senate reconvenes on July 13, targeting completion before month-end ➡️ Core of the bill: classifies most digital assets as commodities (primarily under CFTC oversight), delivering the regulatory clarity the crypto industry has long awaited. Requires 60 votes to pass; Republicans hold ~53 seats, needing at least 7 Democrats. Galaxy Research has lowered the 2026 passage probability to ~50% ➡️ July is the make-or-break window — missing the pre-August recess deadline would likely push the bill into 2027 6️⃣ Hyperliquid HIP-3: Record $72.15B Monthly Volume, TradFi Share Keeps Growing ➡️ Hyperliquid HIP-3 (TradFi perpetuals) recorded approximately $72.15B in June trading volume, an all-time monthly high. Trade xyz accounts for ~97% of HIP-3 volume. HIP-3 now represents ~33% of total Hyperliquid perp volume, with peaks approaching 49% ➡️ Daily volume surpassed $3B at peak; open interest (OI) hit a record high of ~$3.1B. Priority fees from HIP-3 continue to drive HYPE token burns

Merkle3s Weekly Recap: FOMC strips dovish language as Warsh makes a hawkish debut; STRC preferred stock depeg serves as a wake-up call for the yield-bearing stablecoin model; Solana tokenized equities hit $188M in 24h volume ATH, RWA enters the composable phase 1️⃣ Macro: FOMC Holds Rates Steady, Hawkish Tilt ➡️ The June 17–18 FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous 12–0 vote — Warsh's debut meeting. The statement stripped some rate-cut language, the dot plot narrowed full-year easing expectations, and some desks are now pricing in a December hike (~66% probability) ➡️ May headline CPI printed 4.2% YoY (a three-year high), driven by the energy shock; core CPI came in at a softer +0.2% MoM. Unemployment held at 4.3%, with the labor market still resilient ➡️ Near-term implications: dollar strength persists, risk-asset valuations face compression, and crypto liquidity tightens at the margin 2️⃣ STRC Depeg: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin Model Under Pressure ➡️ Strategy's perpetual preferred stock $STRC dropped to roughly $92 (par $100), soft-pegged to the 99–101 range via a floating dividend (annualized ~11.5%). It is equity, not debt — yield depends on BTC appreciation and continued issuance capacity ➡️ DeFi protocol Saturn Credit built structured products on top of STRC (USDat + sUSDat), accumulating $245M in TVL. During the depeg, the junior tranche took the hit while senior holders' yield continued uninterrupted — a genuine stress test for the yield-bearing stablecoin model 3️⃣ Onchain US Stock RWA: Solana Emerges as the Faster Horse ➡️ Backpack and Sunrise issued 1:1 real-equity-backed tokenized stock SPCX on Solana, with 24h volume hitting $108M — pushing Solana's total tokenized equity 24h volume to a new ATH of $187.9M. The setup supports seamless Solana ↔ Nasdaq transfers and underlying security redemption ➡️ Lending integration followed fast: Kamino commands ~40% of the RWA lending market, ahead of Aave; Magpie accepts tokenized stock collateral for SOL loans with terms extending to 30 days. Solana RWA TVL has crossed $3B ➡️ AAVE and Venus announced tokenized-stock-backed lending. Synapse ethereum:0x0f2d719407fdbeff09d87557abb7232601fd9f29 ripped ~900% from lows, fueled by its pivot to Hypercall — an options exchange built on Hyperliquid 4️⃣ Hyperliquid Expands into HK Stocks, AI Assets Move Onchain ➡️ Trade xyz launched a perpetual on Hong Kong-listed Zhipu AI via HIP-3. Zhipu spiked nearly 50% intraday on June 15–16 (closing +33%), with HK$5.2B in turnover, catalyzed by the GLM-5.2 release and JPMorgan raising its target price to HK$1,400 ➡️ HIP-3 equity perps crossed $18B in cumulative volume in the first half of the month; SPCX peaked at $1.4–1.7B in a single day; single-market daily fees hit $1–2M at peak 5️⃣ Market Data and Narrative Evolution ➡️ bitcoin:native sits at roughly $65,600, up 5.9% on the week but down 16% on the month. Total crypto market cap at ~$2.23T, Fear & Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear), BTC dominance at 58% ➡️ Narrative progression: BTC Treasury → yield-bearing stablecoins → US stock RWA → AI assets onchain. Liquidity pressure from the Fed's hawkish stance is beginning to show ➡️ Watch list: STRC risk contagion, tokenized stock lending ecosystem expansion, and the sustainability of AI assets moving onchain

Merkle3s Weekly Recap: US-Iran ceasefire framework lands as oil peaks; Warsh's FOMC debut all but certain to hold — World Cup ignites prediction markets, Hyperliquid SPCX perps hit $1.4B on day one 1️⃣ Macro: Rates Peak, Volatility Persists ➡️ The US and Iran reached a framework to end hostilities, with formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland and the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen shortly after. Shipments through the strait have already rebounded and supply-demand stays tightly balanced — even if the deal hits a snag, oil likely holds below $90, with diminishing market impact ➡️ May headline and core CPI both came in below expectations MoM. With US gasoline prices falling, May is likely the year's inflation peak, and June CPI looks set to turn negative MoM. Two hikes this year are unlikely — a single cut remains on the table. The case for further upside in long-end Treasuries has evaporated, and the center of gravity will drift lower. This sets up a year-defining allocation window for gold ➡️ The June 18 FOMC is Chair Warsh's first, with markets pricing a 98%–99% chance of holding at 3.50%–3.75%. Watch for dot-plot upward revisions that could rattle sentiment, but any bounce is likely still a topping pattern ➡️ US equities have entered a high-volatility regime. South Korea's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker last week (opening down over 8%), driven by excessive semiconductor leverage and retail-concentrated positioning. The technical correction looks complete for now, but the underlying issues remain unresolved — a final 10%–15% drawdown can't be ruled out, though this stops short of a bear market call 2️⃣ Prediction Markets: World Cup Kicks Off a Volume Surge ➡️ The 2026 FIFA World Cup (co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico — 48 teams, 104 matches) is underway. Polymarket's World Cup winner market alone has topped $1.8B, with 878 related markets collectively breaking $2B — a platform record for sports prediction markets ➡️ Kalshi's equivalent winner contract stands at roughly $121M, about 1/15th of Polymarket's. Still, Kalshi's ~$6B 30-day volume leads Polymarket's $4B; on OI, Kalshi sits at ~$833M vs. Polymarket's ~$486M 3️⃣ Perp DEX: Range-Bound Volume Pulls Back, HIP-3 Share Keeps Climbing ➡️ Crypto traded in a tight range last week, with BTC oscillating between $61,000–$63,500 and overall volume declining. BTC now sits at roughly $65,700, with total crypto market cap at ~$2.25 trillion ➡️ Hyperliquid's HIP-3 (TradFi asset perps) volume keeps rising, reaching as much as 64% of total platform volume within a single 24-hour window. Cumulative equity perp volume has topped $10B. The S&P 500 perp alone has reached $721M in OI, generating over $918K in fees from a single market 4️⃣ Hyperliquid × SpaceX IPO: Price Discovery Narrative Validated Again ➡️ After SpaceX listed last Friday, the $SPCX perpetual on Hyperliquid saw $1.4B in day-one volume, 30% of the HIP-3 total. Pre-listing volume exceeded $450M across 917,000 trades, with OI peaking above $100M ➡️ Hyperliquid's pre-IPO price discovery on SpaceX proved accurate, closely tracking the actual opening price and further cementing the narrative. Unlike Robinhood, Coinbase, and Binance, which saw outages or refunds during the IPO window, Hyperliquid executed without disruption, reinforcing its 24/7 uptime and high-concurrency edge 5️⃣ RWA: The SPCX Tokenized Issuance Controversy ➡️ xStocks issued tokenized SpaceX shares (SPCXx) via Kraken, Bybit, and other platforms, supporting USDC subscriptions with 1:1 real equity backing and no lockup — allocated shares become immediately tradable onchain. This marks an early experiment in tokenized primary-market IPO issuance ➡️ Issues in xStocks' issuance and allocation process hit the vast majority of participating exchanges, leaving large numbers of users unable to subscribe as expected — and community frustration keeps building. The SpaceX IPO was heavily oversubscribed, and retail allocations through traditional channels are expected to be minimal ➡️ The core distinction between tokenized shares and perpetuals has sparked debate: the former carries 1:1 backing with real equity rights, the latter a pure price bet with no voting power. Allocation fairness, instant liquidity vs. stability, and whether retail end up as exit liquidity have become the main points of contention.