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Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Deep Value, but Bottom Confirmation Signals Are Still Missing According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has traded below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for about five months, keeping it in deep value territory while a confirmed bottom has yet to form. On-chain data shows long-term holder loss realization has risen from 15% of total realized value in early February to 43%, with daily realized losses peaking at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. ETF outflows have narrowed from $193 million to $88.9 million per day but remain negative, while daily ETF trading volume of $650 million to $950 million is about 80% below the October 2025 peak, suggesting institutional demand has not stabilized. In derivatives, the options open-interest put/call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its 2026 low, indicating reduced short demand, though options skew still reflects demand for downside protection. Glassnode said Bitcoin may be in the later stage of a bear-market bottoming process, but confirmation would require cooling long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization in ETF flows, and a recovery above key cost-basis levels.

As Google pushes AI deeper into Search, more users are seeking simpler, more traditional alternatives. DuckDuckGo reported that visits to its AI-free search page jumped 22.7% on average last week, peaking at 27.7%. The company also saw an 18% increase in US mobile app installs. This suggests not everyone wants AI-generated answers and many users still prefer clean results and more control over browsing. Though Google still dominates with roughly 85% US market share compared to DuckDuckGo’s 2%

Merkle3s Weekly Recap: US-Iran ceasefire framework lands as oil peaks; Warsh's FOMC debut all but certain to hold — World Cup ignites prediction markets, Hyperliquid SPCX perps hit $1.4B on day one 1️⃣ Macro: Rates Peak, Volatility Persists ➡️ The US and Iran reached a framework to end hostilities, with formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland and the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen shortly after. Shipments through the strait have already rebounded and supply-demand stays tightly balanced — even if the deal hits a snag, oil likely holds below $90, with diminishing market impact ➡️ May headline and core CPI both came in below expectations MoM. With US gasoline prices falling, May is likely the year's inflation peak, and June CPI looks set to turn negative MoM. Two hikes this year are unlikely — a single cut remains on the table. The case for further upside in long-end Treasuries has evaporated, and the center of gravity will drift lower. This sets up a year-defining allocation window for gold ➡️ The June 18 FOMC is Chair Warsh's first, with markets pricing a 98%–99% chance of holding at 3.50%–3.75%. Watch for dot-plot upward revisions that could rattle sentiment, but any bounce is likely still a topping pattern ➡️ US equities have entered a high-volatility regime. South Korea's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker last week (opening down over 8%), driven by excessive semiconductor leverage and retail-concentrated positioning. The technical correction looks complete for now, but the underlying issues remain unresolved — a final 10%–15% drawdown can't be ruled out, though this stops short of a bear market call 2️⃣ Prediction Markets: World Cup Kicks Off a Volume Surge ➡️ The 2026 FIFA World Cup (co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico — 48 teams, 104 matches) is underway. Polymarket's World Cup winner market alone has topped $1.8B, with 878 related markets collectively breaking $2B — a platform record for sports prediction markets ➡️ Kalshi's equivalent winner contract stands at roughly $121M, about 1/15th of Polymarket's. Still, Kalshi's ~$6B 30-day volume leads Polymarket's $4B; on OI, Kalshi sits at ~$833M vs. Polymarket's ~$486M 3️⃣ Perp DEX: Range-Bound Volume Pulls Back, HIP-3 Share Keeps Climbing ➡️ Crypto traded in a tight range last week, with BTC oscillating between $61,000–$63,500 and overall volume declining. BTC now sits at roughly $65,700, with total crypto market cap at ~$2.25 trillion ➡️ Hyperliquid's HIP-3 (TradFi asset perps) volume keeps rising, reaching as much as 64% of total platform volume within a single 24-hour window. Cumulative equity perp volume has topped $10B. The S&P 500 perp alone has reached $721M in OI, generating over $918K in fees from a single market 4️⃣ Hyperliquid × SpaceX IPO: Price Discovery Narrative Validated Again ➡️ After SpaceX listed last Friday, the $SPCX perpetual on Hyperliquid saw $1.4B in day-one volume, 30% of the HIP-3 total. Pre-listing volume exceeded $450M across 917,000 trades, with OI peaking above $100M ➡️ Hyperliquid's pre-IPO price discovery on SpaceX proved accurate, closely tracking the actual opening price and further cementing the narrative. Unlike Robinhood, Coinbase, and Binance, which saw outages or refunds during the IPO window, Hyperliquid executed without disruption, reinforcing its 24/7 uptime and high-concurrency edge 5️⃣ RWA: The SPCX Tokenized Issuance Controversy ➡️ xStocks issued tokenized SpaceX shares (SPCXx) via Kraken, Bybit, and other platforms, supporting USDC subscriptions with 1:1 real equity backing and no lockup — allocated shares become immediately tradable onchain. This marks an early experiment in tokenized primary-market IPO issuance ➡️ Issues in xStocks' issuance and allocation process hit the vast majority of participating exchanges, leaving large numbers of users unable to subscribe as expected — and community frustration keeps building. The SpaceX IPO was heavily oversubscribed, and retail allocations through traditional channels are expected to be minimal ➡️ The core distinction between tokenized shares and perpetuals has sparked debate: the former carries 1:1 backing with real equity rights, the latter a pure price bet with no voting power. Allocation fairness, instant liquidity vs. stability, and whether retail end up as exit liquidity have become the main points of contention.

【Blacked】Episode 1: My First Time with a Black Man (21:09 mins) 🔥 That night, after an intense session with Sam, he told me he had arranged for a fan single guy to meet me next week — and that it would be a big surprise 😲. Even though I felt nervous, I excitedly agreed. I asked him who it was and wanted to see a photo first, but Sam just smirked and said, “It’s a surprise. No peeking.” 😏 After dinner, Sam took me to a hotel room and had me change into my sexiest outfit. Then he made me sit on a chair and blindfolded me while waiting for the mystery guest. This was completely different from our usual routine… The sudden blind setup made me more and more anxious 😬… Memories of that bad experience in Thailand flashed back — the rushed hotel encounter where I felt disrespected and almost like I was being assaulted. My heart was racing with worry ❤️‍🔥 The doorbell rang. Sam opened the door, and I heard a deep, masculine English-speaking voice — he was a foreigner. As soon as he entered, he walked straight up to me. I was so nervous I could barely breathe, but I tried to stay composed. He began gently stroking my thighs… His hands and arms felt incredibly strong and muscular 💪 He continued exploring my body, but I still wasn’t fully turned on — I’m the kind of woman who needs kissing and intimacy. So I stood up, took the initiative, and kissed him 💋. The moment our lips met, I felt his powerful body and his surprisingly gentle yet dominant lips. Passion instantly flooded through me 🔥 When he suddenly spanked my ass hard and asked in a low voice, “Are you ready for BBC?” I was shocked 😱 A rush of nervousness, excitement, and thrill surged through my body all at once. Sam always plays Blacked videos for me, and I’ve long fantasized about those muscular bodies and massive cocks 🍆 When I knelt down to give him a blowjob, he finally removed my blindfold. What I saw left me stunned — a powerfully built black man with an enormous, thick black cock 😲… My heart was pounding. I was both intimidated and incredibly turned on 💦 And just like that… I experienced my very first BBC sex ❤️‍🔥 Did I enjoy it?
Watch the video and you’ll see for yourself — I couldn’t hide my moans or my orgasms at all 😩💦 ——————————— 【Blacked】第一集 第一次与黑人接触（21:09分钟） 🔥 那一晚和Sam激烈做爱后，他突然告诉我，下周安排了一位粉丝单男要和我见面，还说会给我一个大惊喜 😲。我虽然有点紧张，但还是兴奋地答应了。我好奇地问他是谁，想先看看照片，Sam却坏笑着说「这是惊喜，不能让你看」😏 晚餐后，Sam带我来到酒店房间，让我换上最性感的衣服，然后坐在椅子上蒙住眼睛等待那位神秘嘉宾。和平时先见面吃饭培养感情的流程完全不同，这次直接盲约，让我越来越不安 😬……想起以前在泰国那次匆忙的酒店单男经历，被无礼对待的感觉像被强奸一样，我的心就一直悬着。 门铃响起，Sam去开门，我听到一个低沉的英文男声——他是个外国人。他一进门就直接走到我身边，我紧张得几乎要发抖，却只能强装镇定。他开始轻轻抚摸我的大腿，那双手臂结实有力 💪 他继续探索我的身体，但我始终缺少那种被爱抚的激情……直到我忍不住站起来，主动吻上他 💋。那一刻，我感受到他宽厚结实的胸膛和温柔又霸道的嘴唇，整个人瞬间被点燃，沉浸在强烈的激情里 🔥 当他用力拍打我的屁股，用低沉的声音问我：「准备好迎接BBC了吗？」我整个人猛地一颤 😱！紧张、刺激、兴奋……各种情绪瞬间涌上来。平时Sam就爱给我看Blackeed的AV，我一直对那些健壮的身躯和粗大肉棒充满幻想 🍆 当我跪下来准备为他口交时，他终于摘掉了我的眼罩。眼前出现的，是一个极具冲击力的健壮黑人身躯，和那根又黑又粗、完全超出我想象的巨型肉棒 😲……那一刻，我真的像在看AV现场，却又真实得让我心跳几乎停止。 就这样，我人生第一次真正体验了与BBC的激情性爱 ❤️‍🔥 我到底有多享受？你看完视频就知道了——我完全藏不住的浪叫与高潮反应，已经把一切都告诉你了 😩💦

I am the Director of Summit Outcomes for the Presidential Advance Team. My job is to land in a foreign capital and leave with a word the President can say on the tarmac. We landed in Beijing 6 days after rolling back the tariffs we spent 4 years imposing. 145% to 30%. The average rate before the trade war was approximately 3%. In Geneva, we called this "creating the conditions for productive dialogue." The conditions were that we had already conceded. I want to be clear: Beijing was a success. We went in with 7 objectives. We left with 3 photo categories, a tentative agreement China has not confirmed, and a bag of burner phones we threw off Air Force One on the tarmac. Diplomacy. My team prepared the deliverables matrix in March. 241 line items organized by urgency, feasibility, and what we call "headline potential." The President reviewed it for 4 minutes. He circled "big deal" and "historic" and wrote "MORE" next to the Boeing section. That became the strategy. Boeing was the centerpiece. 500 aircraft was the White House number we briefed to reporters before departure. 300 was the floor. The Chinese offered 200. Their commerce ministry released the number before we could brief the press. Boeing stock dropped 4.73% that afternoon. Boeing referred questions about the order to the White House. The company receiving the aircraft could not confirm it was receiving aircraft. We called it "fantastic." In Washington, "fantastic" means the other side named the number and the market already priced in your failure. I should note: in 2017, the President announced $250 billion in deals during his first China trip. 300 aircraft. An $84 billion shale gas investment in West Virginia from China Energy Investment Corporation. I can tell you the exact amount of that investment that materialized. Zero. The shale facility was never built. The 2017 Boeing order was renegotiated twice and partially canceled during the trade war the President started 8 months later. There is a binder in my office labeled "2017 OUTCOMES: DO NOT REFERENCE." It is 3 inches thick. It has not been opened in 4 years. We do not reference it because the outcomes are the reference. The agricultural package was what we call a "scaffolding commitment." Billions in purchases over 3 years, structured so the announcement is front-loaded and the verification is someone else's administration. U.S. Trade Representative Greer said "double-digit billions." Beijing's Commerce Ministry issued a statement about "deepening cooperation in agricultural trade." Those are not the same sentence. By design. My deputy maintains a glossary of every term we have invented for agreements that are not agreements. It is 41 pages. He updates it after each summit. Last quarter he added "scaffolding commitment," "streamlined licensing framework," and "mutual recognition of shared concerns." He is in line for a promotion. NVIDIA was the quiet win. H200 chips approved for approximately 10 Chinese companies. We don't say "approved." We say "under a streamlined licensing framework." The chips ship. The export controls remain "in effect." The framework is the loophole wearing a lanyard. The controls exist because these chips in Chinese hands threaten American national security. The chips are shipping to Chinese hands. The controls remain in effect. Both of these are true. Fentanyl was discussed for 9 minutes. Both sides agreed it was a problem. Both sides agreed to continue discussing it. We added it to the deliverables matrix under "ongoing mutual engagement." The previous version of the matrix also listed it under "ongoing mutual engagement." That was in 2023. I copied the line item from the 2023 matrix into the 2026 version. Changed the date. The language was identical. But Taiwan. Taiwan was the deliverable we didn't put on the matrix. I watched the Taiwan exchange from the overflow room on a 12-second delay. I had the contingency statement drafted in 3 versions: "productive exchange," "frank discussion," and "both sides reaffirmed their respective positions." I used none of them. There was no contingency for silence. Chairman Xi released his remarks before the meeting was over. While the President was still seated across the table, Chinese state media published the transcript. "Clashes and even conflicts." His bluntest language on Taiwan in the history of the relationship, released to 1.4 billion people while we were still pouring tea. We called this "sequencing." The President was asked whether he would defend Taiwan if China attacked. He chose not to answer. We wrote that down as "a strong listen." The $14 billion arms sale. Already approved by Congress. The largest in the history of the Taiwan Relations Act. Taiwan's parliament spent months appropriating the $25 billion to proceed with this package and the $11 billion tranche approved last year. They finally secured the funding this month. The President told Fox News it was "a very good negotiating chip." He used the word "chip." Referring to the defense of 24 million people. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense sent our office a letter requesting clarity on the delivery timeline. 3 pages. It referenced specific weapons systems by name: F-16V Block 70 fighters, HIMARS launchers, Harpoon coastal defense missiles. The letter was addressed to me. I filed it under "pending." On Air Force One, a reporter asked about the 1982 Six Assurances, the framework in which the United States committed not to consult with Beijing before selling arms to Taiwan. The President said: "What am I going to do, say I don't want to talk to you about it because I have an agreement wrote in 1982? No, we discussed arms sales." 44 years of bipartisan Taiwan policy, dismissed in 2 sentences at 38,000 feet. We are calling this "a modernized approach to alliance management." Our readout mentioned trade, agriculture, energy, and regional stability. It did not mention Taiwan. I wrote it. Their readout opened with Taiwan. I have staffed 7 summits across 2 administrations. This is the first where I could not draft a single deliverable as a success without a qualifier. In my office there is a laminated card that lists every synonym for "undecided" that polls above 40% approval. "Active review" is 3rd. "Determination" is 7th. Both tested well with independents in the Midwest. He also said: "Taiwan would be very smart to cool it a little bit. China would be very smart to cool it a little bit." He was eating a cheeseburger. He said this while eating a cheeseburger. Secretary Rubio told NBC that Taiwan arms sales "did not feature prominently." This is accurate in the same way that the iceberg did not feature prominently in the Titanic's itinerary. Representative McCaul, Republican of Texas, former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the United States must "arm Taiwan so they can defend themselves." He said Xi was "very aggressive" regarding Taiwan during the summit and that "most of what Xi talked about was Taiwan." Representative Meeks, Democrat of New York, ranking member of the same committee, said Xi has "leverage over the president" but not "over the United States Congress and the American people." He noted that Congress already approved the package. "The president is the one that's holding it up." Representative Fitzpatrick, Republican of Pennsylvania, compared Taiwan to Ukraine. He called both "fortresses of democracy on the front lines." Speaker Johnson said Taiwan needs to "stay independent and secure." The bipartisan consensus was that something had gone wrong. The bipartisan action was press quotes. No vote. No resolution. No hearing scheduled. 4 members of Congress from both parties said the right words to reporters and then went to lunch. That's how the system processes alarm. I monitor 14 accounts we classify as "aligned messaging amplifiers." Within 4 hours of the Taiwan exchange, 9 went silent. 2 pivoted to fentanyl. 1 posted 3 words: "Not like this." It received 280,000 impressions in 90 minutes. He deleted it and posted about the border instead. The President patted Chairman Xi on the back 7 times during the Zhongnanhai garden walk. We counted. He called him "my friend" in 4 languages, 2 of which he does not speak. He asked if other world leaders had been invited to the compound. They had. Putin was there last year. The President asked if his tour was longer. 15 CEOs flew with us to Beijing. Their combined net worth approaches $1 trillion. Cook. Musk. Jensen Huang. Larry Fink from BlackRock. Jane Fraser from Citigroup. David Solomon from Goldman Sachs. Stephen Schwarzman from Blackstone. Kelly Ortberg from Boeing. The CEO of Visa. The CEO of Mastercard. The CEO of Qualcomm. Illumina. Micron. Cargill. GE Aerospace. Musk and Huang rode on Air Force One. The others flew commercial. Tesla's Shanghai factory produces approximately half of the company's vehicles worldwide. Musk's presence on Air Force One was noted by my counterintelligence liaison. No further action was taken. We organized the state banquet seating chart by net worth. I am told this was the President's suggestion. They came for market access. Xi told them China would "open further to American business." That was the deliverable. Those 5 words. No specifics. No timeline. No sectors named. 15 chief executives flew to Beijing and received a sentence. Chairman Xi has delivered this sentence at every summit I have staffed. It has not once been followed by a named sector, a timeline, or a specific commitment. It is received as news each time. 43 lobby badges in a Ziploc bag. That's what my team collected from the CEOs after the garden tour. Standard protocol. The badges were embossed with the Great Hall of the People seal. Several executives asked if they could keep them. We said no. One asked twice. 15 executives with combined access to American financial, defense, and technology infrastructure had spent 3 hours inside the Great Hall of the People. We secured the lobby badges. The S&P 500 futures dropped 1% on the morning after the summit. The KOSPI fell 6.12%. China's CSI 300 fell 1.12%. UBS told clients that "much increasingly scarce jet fuel has been burned to produce nothing of real substance." Fortune's headline was "Wall Street sees nothing of real substance." The markets liked the anticipation. The markets did not like the deliverables matrix. Iran was the item we listed as "mutual recognition of shared concerns." The President told reporters they "feel very similar." Xi sat in silence. China's Foreign Ministry did not comment on any commitment regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The President then told reporters the United States "doesn't need the Strait of Hormuz open at all." Oil hit $109 per barrel. Deutsche Bank flagged it as a market-killing statement within the hour. The President described Iran as "a little bit crazy." This was during a toast. Over Peking duck. Rare earths. I prepared a 40-page brief on critical mineral dependency. Supply chain maps for 14 minerals. $1.2 trillion in dependent U.S. industries. Roughly 4% of GDP. The President circled the GDP figure and wrote "big." In the meeting, he asked Chairman Xi if rare earths were "the things in magnets." They are. They are also in every F-35, every Patriot missile battery, and every MRI machine in the country. The discussion lasted 11 minutes. 3 of them were about magnets. No agreement on export licenses. China exposed our dependency last year and has not let us forget it. The Supreme Court struck down our tariffs separately, which was helpful context for the discussions. Fentanyl received 9 minutes. Magnets received 3. We are calling the rare earth outcome "a foundation for continued engagement." There is a poster in the Advance Team office that says "A foundation is not a building." It has been there since my first summit. No one has removed it. On the flight home, my team collected every item the Chinese government had distributed. The credentials. The pins. The keepsakes. The rose seeds Chairman Xi offered for the White House Rose Garden. Standard counterintelligence protocol. All of it went into a bag and off the plane before wheels-up. We threw away the roses. We kept the talking points. The Boeing order grew on the flight home. 500 before departure. 200 in Beijing. 750 somewhere over the Pacific. Boeing had not confirmed 200. The President told reporters on Air Force One it was "a pretty historic couple days." I wrote the line that preceded it: "Tonal reset with significant forward momentum." He used "fantastic" instead. In previous administrations, a tonal reset preceded the deliverables. In this administration, the tonal reset is the deliverable. He has used "fantastic" for every summit since 2017. I have not checked whether the word still polls well. I am told it does. Beijing has not confirmed any of the agreements announced by U.S. officials. This is consistent with the 2017 visit, where $250 billion in deals were announced and an estimated $10 billion materialized. It is consistent with the October summit, where pledges were also made and also not fulfilled. We have a term for this in the Advance Team. We call it "precedent." I have already labeled the binder for 2026. We go back in September. Same matrix. New line items. The verification will be someone else's administration. The President has already asked for the word "monumental." I am told it polls well.

✉️🎉 The amazing girl Luo Qi just received her acceptance letter from Peking University at her tiny stall! "All I want is for my family to be safe and sound," she said. 💕🤗@PKU1898 Source: Renminribao (Douyin)