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STRC trading more correlated to BTC price
STRC’s recovery, Strategy’s cash rebuild, and what comes next for Digital Credit. The August issue from @UTXOmgmt’s Digital Credit Monthly. $STRC $MSTR #Bitcoin# @Saylor
STRC - "Solves the Investors Dilemma" STRC provides Double Digit Returns, tax efficiency, Low Volatility, Capital Preservation. ^This is very true.
STRC’s BTC Credit is calculated using our Credit model with assumed inputs of 10% BTC ARR, 40% BTC Vol, and a BTC price of $62,893.
STRC hits $100 by Sept 30th: NO 66c At the moment, Saylor is selling BTC to fund the cash reserve (almost $5b now). When Bitcoin goes up, $STRC probably goes up with it. Will BTC go up? Yes, but I think closer to year-end, eg. October and the rest of Q4. I doubt STRC will repeg before Sept 30th. In general it should be more selling pressure the closer we get to $100. So yes, it will re-peg. But not before Sept 30th. NFA. DYOR. Trade with me here:
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STRC is now trading 35% of MSTR's daily share volume on a 7-day MA. SATA is at 6% of ASST. But that's the wrong number. Run the dollar volume instead. Over the last 30 days: MSTR ~$2.96B/day · STRC ~$409M/day → STRC = 14% of MSTR's dollar flow ASST ~$55M/day · SATA ~$19M/day → SATA = 35% of ASST's dollar flow The ratio inverts because share volume hides what par-priced instruments actually move. A SATA share trades at ~$100. An ASST share trades at ~$17. One SATA print is six ASST prints. Of every dollar of capital touching the Strategy stack on a given day, 12¢ goes through STRC. Of every dollar touching the Strive stack, 26¢ goes through SATA. Strive's preferred is doing more of the work for its common than Strategy's is, proportional to the size of each ecosystem. In absolute terms STRC is a $400M+ daily market. SATA is still a $19M one. The instrument is real on both sides. The scale isn't comparable yet. Watch the trajectory. STRC went from 4% of MSTR share volume in November to 35% today. Six months. But remember, SATA is a LOT newer than STRC. The same curve is starting to bend on SATA - 2% to 6% over the same window - just from a smaller base. Can't wait to continue watching digital credit adoption in real time... especially with daily and semi-monthly dividends for the instruments.
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STRC volume today: 15.60M shares. ~$1.56B notional. For context, the entire month of October 2025 averaged barely a million shares a day. Today did fifteen. 4.3x the 15-day moving average. The most liquid preferred on Nasdaq is a fire hose pointed at the orange coin.
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STRC is the greatest business model of all-time. Saylor raised over $10 billion in 2036 capital in ONE DAY... assuming Bitcoin goes up 25% per year. Today's volume @ 80% capture rate over $100 par. BTC acquired: 14,172 BTC Average BTC price: $81,920 Dollar amount raised/deployed: about $1.161B Dividend rate: 11.5% annually BTC growth assumption: 25% CAGR Timeframe: 10 years After 10 years at 25% CAGR: BTC price: $81,920 × 1.25¹⁰ = $762,939 Value of 14,172 BTC: 14,172 × $762,939 = $10.81B Annual dividend cost: $1.161B × 11.5% = $133.5M per year Total dividends paid over 10 years: $133.5M × 10 = $1.335B The green bars are the CUMULATIVE running total of dividends paid over a decade. The dividend is also assumed at Strategy ALWAYS paying 11.5%... when in reality rates will likely be lower. Paying 11.5% in fiat to stack compounding Bitcoin is incredible. One day of trading. $9.47 billion in spread value captured over a decade. Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world.
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STRC MADNESS IS HERE 3.5 hours for $785.4 million in trading volume. 80% capture rate means roughly $628.32 million dollars raised. In 3.5 hours. 210 minutes. $3 million per minute. 0.6 BITCOIN PER SECOND. S&P 500 companies who do less than that PER QUARTER in PROFIT: AutoZone Starbucks Lululemon Domino's Pizza Dollar Tree AirBnb 3M
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