Dan Hillery
@hillery_dan
VP of Credit @UTXOmgmt || Digital Credit Research || Electrical Engineering @BrownUniversity || Youtube:
297 Following 23.3K Followers
Buying at the power law floor price of BTC has never had a negative return outside of 2 months.
Here we go.
Financial repression and the positive repricing of BTC.
Finally, Bitcoin has been on the move after holding the $60k support zone for almost a year. That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts, so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway. Note that the Z-score of BTC/gold has turned positive after being -100%. In the past that has generally been confirmation of a bottom.
What does all of the above suggest? We are in a new secular regime of a higher cost of capital, which suggests that governments will respond with that oldest trick in the book: financial repression.
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1.5x MNAV, 420k Bitcoin, MSTR = 1800.
June 2028 Calls do a 50x.
Just the messenger.
STRC trading more correlated to BTC price
The Fed hiked. CLARITY stalled. Let's dive in.
BMTV live today, 9:30-11:30 AM ET 🚀
Tune in! 👇
I am going to attend a personal branding conference in Miami.
I have seen the real difference that understanding these sorts of skills make in the modern world, and Robert is a good friend.
Images below provide more detail if interested.
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- 4 Fed officials think we get 2 more rate hikes in 2026
- 12 Fed officials think we get 1 more rate hike in 2026
- 2 Fed officials think we get 0 more rate hikes in 2026
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25bps.
Agreed
Maybe. But Bitcoin is nothing without saylor. Time to put some respect on his name
On our team.
This is my current stock portfolio
Not financial advice. Idk what I’m doing.
Love these two metrics next to each other. That + MNAV is really all you need.
Completely agree.
STRK is a fantastic addition to any portfolio.
1-month performance:
- BTC 23%
- $STRK 15%
STRK is structured Bitcoin exposure + dividends.
The most underrated pref.
Strategy separates their cash on the balance sheet between:
USD ASSTS vs. Dividends
Bitcoin price doubles next year?
Strategy and Strive are just arbs between cost of capital and performance of BTC.
Digital credit liquidity is better than private credit.
The problem is that many investors don't want daily market to market value.
There will be products built ontop of STRC that offer this return profile to investors.
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Annual Compound Growth Rate of Bitcoin's 200 week Moving Average:
Lookback Annualized growth
1 year 24.1%
3 years 32.8%
4 years 29.3%
5 years 33.6%
7 years 46.8%
10 years 68.7%
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