Finally, Bitcoin has been on the move after holding the $60k support zone for almost a year. That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts, so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway. Note that the Z-score of BTC/gold has turned positive after being -100%. In the past that has generally been confirmation of a bottom.
What does all of the above suggest? We are in a new secular regime of a higher cost of capital, which suggests that governments will respond with that oldest trick in the book: financial repression.
I am going to attend a personal branding conference in Miami.
I have seen the real difference that understanding these sorts of skills make in the modern world, and Robert is a good friend.
Images below provide more detail if interested.
- 4 Fed officials think we get 2 more rate hikes in 2026
- 12 Fed officials think we get 1 more rate hike in 2026
- 2 Fed officials think we get 0 more rate hikes in 2026
STRC’s recovery, Strategy’s cash rebuild, and what comes next for Digital Credit.
The August issue from @UTXOmgmt’s Digital Credit Monthly.
$STRC $MSTR #Bitcoin# @Saylor
Digital credit liquidity is better than private credit.
The problem is that many investors don't want daily market to market value.
There will be products built ontop of STRC that offer this return profile to investors.
Annual Compound Growth Rate of Bitcoin's 200 week Moving Average:
Lookback Annualized growth
1 year 24.1%
3 years 32.8%
4 years 29.3%
5 years 33.6%
7 years 46.8%
10 years 68.7%
$MSTR
Dan’s point is easy to overlook, and I think there’s another layer to the mNAV conversation that gets missed.
Strategy is a very different vehicle today than it was in 2024.
The company is larger. The capital structure is more complex. Preferreds now absorb some of the structured and yield demand. There are more alternatives for investors seeking Bitcoin exposure.
At this size, sustaining a 3x+ mNAV is a very different proposition.
But there’s one thing you can’t model on a spreadsheet:
Human sentiment.
mNAV is a reflection of sentiment. It is not the measuring stick most investors are using to decide whether they want to buy $MSTR.
If Bitcoin starts ripping, people will want amplified Bitcoin exposure.
They aren’t running CEBE frameworks.
Most of them won’t even know what mNAV stands for.
They’ll see a stock that has already gone up significantly and think:
I want some of that.
We see this behavior across markets all the time. Companies trade at multiples of earnings that look completely irrational on paper because people aren’t buying the spreadsheet.
They’re buying the story, the momentum, and the possibility of what comes next.
I don’t think that makes Dan’s argument wrong.
I just don’t think 2x is a hard ceiling that price can’t cross.
Same as anything volatile: buy when it’s bleeding. When it gets exuberant, either sell or sit on your hands.
Don’t confuse “this multiple shouldn’t last” with “this multiple can’t print.”
The multiple is a consequence of the demand for the asset, the company, and the opportunity.
In a genuine Bitcoin mania, the eventual high print will be determined by human emotions, not a formula.
$BTC $MSTR $STRC