⚒️open sourcing my own TOKEN Framework (+) pre-lim $ANT numbers for everyone to do their own forecasting ⚒️
TOKEN FRAMEWORK (below) - consolidate all my thoughts from last 12m & tried to organize into a more coherent framework for how I am thinking about it (+) linking all my sources.. 3 important things imo
1. "Count Dollars not Tokens"
2. Pricing power is real but narrow
*YOU have to have a view on Token Growth and Open Weights SHARE OF DOLLARS to have conviction ... On Vercel it went from about 5% to 23% in three months, led by pricier open models such as Kimi K3, not the cheapest ones. If that continues, we're in Bear: open-weight takes about 57% of 2030 API spend and frontier-lab spend only doubles. If it stalls, Base holds: about 24% open, about 10x for closed labs. That's a $700B difference in frontier-lab revenue by 2030
**I am sure the hive will find some errors -> good... send them and will update
$ANT : 5 things you need to believe .. the CORE bet is #
3# and #
5# for the true believers
- adjusted "RRR" waterfall for S-1 disclosures (this is run rate revenue and not ARR tbc)
*"NRR adds" a black eye -> I would really focus on this with mgmt in IPO meetings ... really understanding the headwinds and tailwinds
- my true est. SHARE COUNT (wow)
- profitability bridge to help me understand moving pieces
- Funding Traces
- **BULL v BEAR** what you all want
TOKEN MODEL:
ANT_ARR_TOKEN_MODEL:
Both of these are meant to encourage debate + for you to stress test your own assumptions and add to what I have here - needless to say nothing here is investment advice and you agree to that stipulation before opening any of the models - I will be tweaking and updating my own daily so can change without notice