🗳️With 9 days until Election Day, the vast majority of House toss-up (and recently toss-up) races are heavily favoring Democrats in prediction markets.
@Kalshi implied margins (D minus R) across 23 current and recent toss-up districts:
• 20 favor Democrats, 3 favor Republicans
• 12 districts price a Democratic edge of 50+ points (CA-22, AZ-06, OH-07, VA-02, TX-34, NC-11, TX-15, CO-08, NC-01, PA-08, WI-03, OH-09)
• The R-leaning three: MT-01, KY-06, TX-35
The six districts Cook Political Report moved from toss-up to lean Democrat on Friday (AZ-06, CO-08, NC-11, TX-34, VA-02, WI-03) had all been pricing a Democratic edge on Kalshi for weeks beforehand, and now sit at 55-78 point implied margins.
This chart and much more updates live on our election dashboard.