Michael McDonough
@M_McDonough
🔮 Global Head of Market Innovation @TheTerminal. Ex-Chief Economist. Prediction markets, digital assets, perps. Views my own.
174 Following 59.5K Followers
🇺🇸 One of the more notable trends heading into Election Day: several key Senate prediction markets have moved toward Democrats in the final stretch.
The shift is visible across a number of states, with Texas and Iowa moving close to even on the Democratic-minus-Republican implied-margin measure, while Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Kansas have also moved higher.
Not every race is moving the same way — which is what makes the trajectories interesting to watch.
Track the Senate markets in real time with @Kalshi data on @TheTerminal:
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🚨Biggest move of the day (so far) across the most closely watched races on WSL PREDICT<GO>: Michigan Senate, El-Sayed (D) now 67%, down 9 points.
🗳️Tracking this weekend's midterm developments and how they hit our election dashboards on @TheTerminal.
Michigan Senate: @Kalshi ticked lower within minutes of the ABC News headline that Democrat Haley Stevens appeared alongside Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed (D) eased from 77% to 68% and Rogers (R) edged up from 24% to 32%. Not a big repricing, but a notable development in a closely watched race.
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Israeli election news is starting to hit, with three exit polls showing the Eisenkot bloc leading but short of a majority.
Track the real-time reaction in @Kalshi prediction markets on @TheTerminal as more results come in.
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🗳️Our prediction-market and election dashboards are ramping up ahead of next week’s U.S. midterm elections.
Use them on @TheTerminal to track market-implied probabilities, key Senate and House races, control-of-Congress scenarios, and the live reaction to breaking news and incoming vote counts as Election Day unfolds.
A few examples below:
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🆕The highly anticipated Anthropic ($ANT) pre-IPO perpetual from @tradexyz on @HyperliquidX is now live on WSL HYPE <GO>:
🏠Home-Buying Power of a $2,000 Monthly Mortgage Payment
Implied home price using the U.S. average 30-year fixed mortgage rate; 20% down, principal and interest only
📈Tracking changes in relevant @Kalshi prediction markets following Trump rallies, including statewide Senate and nearby competitive House races.
IB or MSG me on @TheTerminal if you want access.
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🇧🇷Weekend price action in @tradexyz's Brazil ETF perpetual on @HyperliquidX as election results rolled in, bookended by Friday’s TradFi close and Monday pre-market.
From the Hyperliquid dashboard: WSL HYPE <GO> on @TheTerminal.
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🇧🇷Game, set, match.
The @HyperliquidX Brazil ETF perp is now at 35.14, well below Friday’s 42.59 close, after topping 46 earlier today as Brazil’s election results come in and Lula pulls off what looks like a surprise win.
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🇧🇷Brazil runoff night, and the perp is trading the odds in real time.
Since 4pm ET, @Kalshi's Bolsonaro contract went 80% → 10%, and the @HyperliquidX Brazil ETF perpetual went 46.30 → 40.46, down 12.6% from its high and now 5% below EWZ's Friday close of 42.59.
The last leg, 42.58 to 40.46, took about a minute. EWZ opens Monday into a market that already repriced it.
Track live on @TheTerminal
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7:16PM NY Time *Updated*
🇧🇷Brazil runoff on @Kalshi, in one chart.
Bolsonaro traded at 80%+ for two days. In the space of about an hour this afternoon, Lula went from 20% to 70% and Bolsonaro collapsed to 31%, on the heaviest volume of the market's life.
The bottom panel tells the story: low volumes all weekend, then everything at once as results came in.
Track live on @TheTerminal
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🇧🇷Brazil runoff on @Kalshi, in one chart.
Bolsonaro traded at 80%+ for two days. In the space of about an hour this afternoon, Lula went from 20% to 70% and Bolsonaro collapsed to 31%, on the heaviest volume of the market's life.
The bottom panel tells the story: low volumes all weekend, then everything at once as results came in.
Track live on @TheTerminal
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🇧🇷Update, two hours later: it flipped.
Kalshi (Bolsonaro wins): 80% → 30%
Hyperliquid Brazil ETF perp: 46 → 42.58, the entire weekend rally gone
EWZ: still 42.59. The perp just round-tripped back to Friday's close before the ETF ever opened.
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🇧🇷BRAZIL COURT GRANTS VOTING HOURS EXTENSION
Update: both live markets reacted instantly. @Kalshi's Flávio Bolsonaro contract (green) slipped from 79% to 66%, and the @HyperliquidX Brazil ETF perpetual (white) dropped from over 46 to 44.84.
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🇧🇷BRAZIL COURT GRANTS VOTING HOURS EXTENSION
Update: both live markets reacted instantly. @Kalshi's Flávio Bolsonaro contract (green) slipped from 79% to 66%, and the @HyperliquidX Brazil ETF perpetual (white) dropped from over 46 to 44.84.
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🇧🇷Brazil Update (Sunday morning, election day):
⚪The @HyperliquidX perp hasn’t stopped moving. It pushed as high as $45.50 overnight before settling around $44.80 — still ~5% above 🟠EWZ’s Friday close of $42.60.
🟢@Kalshi’s odds of a Flávio Bolsonaro win eased slightly to 80% after touching 84%. Polls open today; EWZ won’t catch up until Monday, but the perp is already pricing the weekend.
Track it live on @TheTerminal.
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🗳️With 9 days until Election Day, the vast majority of House toss-up (and recently toss-up) races are heavily favoring Democrats in prediction markets.
@Kalshi implied margins (D minus R) across 23 current and recent toss-up districts:
• 20 favor Democrats, 3 favor Republicans
• 12 districts price a Democratic edge of 50+ points (CA-22, AZ-06, OH-07, VA-02, TX-34, NC-11, TX-15, CO-08, NC-01, PA-08, WI-03, OH-09)
• The R-leaning three: MT-01, KY-06, TX-35
The six districts Cook Political Report moved from toss-up to lean Democrat on Friday (AZ-06, CO-08, NC-11, TX-34, VA-02, WI-03) had all been pricing a Democratic edge on Kalshi for weeks beforehand, and now sit at 55-78 point implied margins.
This chart and much more updates live on our election dashboard.
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🇧🇷Brazil Update (Sunday morning, election day):
⚪The @HyperliquidX perp hasn’t stopped moving. It pushed as high as $45.50 overnight before settling around $44.80 — still ~5% above 🟠EWZ’s Friday close of $42.60.
🟢@Kalshi’s odds of a Flávio Bolsonaro win eased slightly to 80% after touching 84%. Polls open today; EWZ won’t catch up until Monday, but the perp is already pricing the weekend.
Track it live on @TheTerminal.
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🇧🇷Brazil heads to the polls tomorrow for the final round of its presidential election, and this chart shows three ways markets are pricing the outcome:
🟢 @Kalshi — the odds that Flávio Bolsonaro wins (left axis). Now at 84%, up from ~78% on Friday.
🟠 $EWZ — the Brazil ETF that trades on traditional tails (right axis). It closed Friday at $42.60 and won’t trade again until Monday.
⚪ The Brazil ETF perpetual on @HyperliquidX — a 24/7 crypto-style contract that tracks EWZ (right axis). It’s trading right now at $44.30.
The interesting part is what’s happened since Friday’s close. With US markets shut for the weekend, EWZ is frozen, but the perp has kept moving — up roughly 4% today as the Kalshi odds of a Bolsonaro win climbed. That’s a live read on where EWZ could open Monday, before the stock market can react. Plenty of news still to come before then, not least the vote itself — track it all live on our Hyperliquid and election dashboards on @TheTerminal
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🇧🇷Brazil heads to the polls tomorrow for the final round of its presidential election, and this chart shows three ways markets are pricing the outcome:
🟢 @Kalshi — the odds that Flávio Bolsonaro wins (left axis). Now at 84%, up from ~78% on Friday.
🟠 $EWZ — the Brazil ETF that trades on traditional tails (right axis). It closed Friday at $42.60 and won’t trade again until Monday.
⚪ The Brazil ETF perpetual on @HyperliquidX — a 24/7 crypto-style contract that tracks EWZ (right axis). It’s trading right now at $44.30.
The interesting part is what’s happened since Friday’s close. With US markets shut for the weekend, EWZ is frozen, but the perp has kept moving — up roughly 4% today as the Kalshi odds of a Bolsonaro win climbed. That’s a live read on where EWZ could open Monday, before the stock market can react. Plenty of news still to come before then, not least the vote itself — track it all live on our Hyperliquid and election dashboards on @TheTerminal
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🆕Another new real-time chart for our election dashboard on @TheTerminal, tracking how @Kalshi prediction-market implied margins have evolved across the 2026 U.S. House toss-up races.
Blue marks districts where Democrats have held the advantage throughout, red where Republicans have held it, and purple where the advantage has shifted from Republican to Democratic, and there are quite a few purple lines.
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🆕With the 2026 midterms fast approaching, we’re revamping our election-monitor dashboards on @TheTerminal.
Here’s a first look at one of the key charts: real-time @Kalshi prediction-market data tracking how implied margins are shifting across the most competitive U.S. Senate races.
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🆕🇫🇷 France CPI is now available in ECAN, with full breakdowns and contribution analysis at every level of the CPI basket:
