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The Breakdown Ep 3 | Is the Cycle Bottom in? | Live on Kraken Pro
The more obvious the breakdown looks, the more dangerous it can be.
The current valuation of #Bitcoin# vs. Gold is the lowest it's ever been. The current valuation of BTC/Gold vs. the Global Money Supply is also the lowest it has ever been. It's never been out of the 2-sigma bands, however, over the past few months, it dropped out of this framework. The primary reason for the breakdown is very easily to understand: - 10/10 broke the markets entirely and liquidity was sucked away from the markets into other assets. - Gold has seen a tremendous rally, triggering a ton of upside for that asset class, dragging even more liquidity away from #Bitcoin#. As the recent AI and IPO hype has swiftly faded away, I would assume that liquidity will be sucked back into the markets. #Bitcoin# is currently perhaps the cheapest it has ever been. The current fair value of #Bitcoin# swims at $150,000-200,000 and I'm sure that we'll see this happen in the next 12 months.
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The kHYPE loop quantified With @kinetiq_xyz kHYPE continuing to be the dominant collateral asset across HyperEVM, we wanted to give a breakdown on the current status of the kHYPE loop and how returns are playing out at different risk profiles today. Let’s dive in: Attached in graphic below is the breakdown at current Felix rates: Net APY = leverage × kHYPE yield − (leverage − 1) × HYPE borrow rate. kHYPE has averaged 1.94% APY over the past 14 days, and HYPE borrow against kHYPE on Felix is currently costing 0.84%, so result is +1.10% of carry per unit of leverage. For kHYPE/HYPE, Felix prices kHYPE at its redemption rate, not its market price. In September 2025, kHYPE briefly traded at 0.88 on secondary markets. This is a position Felix's oracle wouldn't have moved. Given that, where is the risk in the kHYPE loop? 1) Rate inversion: if borrow rates spike above staking yield, LTV drifts up. However, even at a sustained 10% HYPE borrow rate, drifting from 75% LTV to the 86% liquidation threshold takes ~1.7 years, and, even so, this 10% HYPE borrow rate rate would likely be arbed down in a matter of hours by HYPE lenders. 2) Exits: unwinding early means selling kHYPE at market price or waiting in the 8-9 day unstake queue. The oracle protects your health factor, not your exit price. Run the kHYPE loop yourself, or feel free to reach out to our team for more data on the loop:
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The three largest crypto attacks of 2026 shared one trait: every security control passed at the moment of execution. Signatures were valid. Quorums were met. Governance ran as designed. In our latest webinar, Hypernative Product Manager Elad Feldman draws the distinction that explains all three: conventional security asks whether an action was authorized, while almost nothing asks what the authorized action will actually do. Attackers have learned to operate entirely inside authorized paths, which means the question worth asking is about the outcome, not the permission. Watch the full session for the breakdown:
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The stock market is divided into 11 distinct sectors. From tech and energy to healthcare and real estate, learning how these industries rotate can help you build a stronger, crash-resistant portfolio. Get the breakdown 👇
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The Intermarket Sequence is clear. This is not rotation. This is a liquidity event. Credit led the breakdown. Equities confirmed the exit. Now capital is searching for safety. Liquidity is the only variable that matters here. Full breakdown in the latest report.
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The Breakdown: Joe Turner on how to produce killer 303-style melodic arps
Despite the LTF $BTC chop, all we’ve really been doing is repeatedly hunting longs below the previous lows. So clearly, the objective has been to take out longs. The question is: why? When the market continuously hunts one particular side, there’s usually a reason. More often than not, it’s because that’s the side the market eventually intends to reward. Repeatedly sweeping the lows de-leverages the market and slowly destroys conviction in longs. Eventually, people become conditioned to expect every sweep to lead to the breakdown. Then boom. The final sweep marks the local bottom, and price expands back towards the highs. The idea is simple: make the winning side as uncomfortable as possible. Force them out, make them lose conviction, and convince them they’re wrong. Repeatedly hunting the lows after a major impulse does exactly that.
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LIVE TODAY 7PM EST: The new episode of the Breakdown podcast covers a wild week in Trump's America, from offering to sacrifice LA and San Diego to whatever he says next. Watch here:
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