Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast
1.7K Following 819.5K Followers
$AAVE is one of those protocols that consistently kept building.
I've started my journey in #Crypto# in 2017 and I can honestly say that I admire @StaniKulechov for what he's been building.
It's more than ten years now since his vision started, and only to be thinking of DeFi back in that period of time is insane, let alone building it through all the challenges.
I believe that $AAVE is on the verge of becoming that DeFi Layer for finance, as we're about to face a big adoption curve in terms of growth.
I'd courage everyone to watch the episode.
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Who likes $XRP?
Well,
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How?
Simply hold more than €500 in $XRP on the exchange, trade during the window (which is until the 9th of August) and be part of a pool of 200,000 $XRP.
Each day, you'll earn a piece of this pool by being active on the trading activity in $XRP.
Bonus: $XRP trading activity will be counted as a 3x, so the more you trade, the more rewards you'll earn.
Only for EEA users and for @OKX app users.
Join here, deposit your $XRP and get your reward:
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#Bitcoin# has lost its uptrend on the lower timeframes.
This could indicate that we're going to see $60,000-61,000 before we're continuing to be moving upwards.
Overall; markets continue to be range-bound and have low volatility due to the summer break.
Main events coming up:
- FOMC tomorrow evening.
- Clarity Act vote during next week.
The structure remains intact, which means that I think that we're still in for higher grounds, however, it shouldn't fall sub $61,000 and preferably flips back upwards tomorrow after FOMC.
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Europe, meet the easier side of trading futures.
Trade X-Perps in simple mode with up to 10× leverage in the experience you already know.
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Big Dutch tv show discusses the attack at the Pride in Germany and are pessimistic about the future.
Next topic: the attack on people who vote for an asylum seekers center.
Fuck sake. The solution is so fucking simple: close the borders, increase the punishment on attacks, kick people out and you’ll be done quickly.
Absolutely crazy world we’re living in.
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BlackRock supports the Clarity Act.
Less than two weeks and it’s approved and we’re in the biggest bull cycle ever for #Crypto#.
#Bitcoin# continues to hold above the 21-Day MA and 50-Day MA and that signals that we're likely continuing upwards in the coming period.
If these are lost, that's when you'll see the first shake off take place.
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A little correction on the markets for $ETH.
However, if you look at the larger picture (which is the daily timeframe), it's still eyeing a continuation of the breakout towards $2,000+.
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You don't need to see more charts apart from this one on #Bitcoin# capitulation.
We've hit #Bitcoin# capitulation as it's been just as worse as in 2022.
The inverse of that statement: 2022 was the best period to buy Bitcoin.
Just like it is right now.
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The FOMC meeting is a very important meeting this week.
Inflation data has come down over the past month, meaning that we could see some signs of a potential case of rate cuts rather than rate hikes.
If that's the case, #Bitcoin# will break $67,000 easily.
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President Trump: ‘We’ve decided to give Iran some time.
Not very long. If they don’t make a deal, we’ll attack very powerfully.’
In short: Oil prices are too high, so inflation picks back up again and that's not in the agenda of Trump.
This means: he needs to consolidate to avoid that things escalate further, not in his favor.
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My weekly #Altcoin# portfolio update is live for X Subscribers.
Get the latest information here, as we'll be trading 2 assets actively:
The current valuation of #Bitcoin# vs. Gold is the lowest it's ever been.
The current valuation of BTC/Gold vs. the Global Money Supply is also the lowest it has ever been.
It's never been out of the 2-sigma bands, however, over the past few months, it dropped out of this framework.
The primary reason for the breakdown is very easily to understand:
- 10/10 broke the markets entirely and liquidity was sucked away from the markets into other assets.
- Gold has seen a tremendous rally, triggering a ton of upside for that asset class, dragging even more liquidity away from #Bitcoin#.
As the recent AI and IPO hype has swiftly faded away, I would assume that liquidity will be sucked back into the markets.
#Bitcoin# is currently perhaps the cheapest it has ever been.
The current fair value of #Bitcoin# swims at $150,000-200,000 and I'm sure that we'll see this happen in the next 12 months.
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"You go to the supermarket and steak's on sale, you think: this is great. And in investing, the price of something goes down, you ask yourself: well, what's wrong?"
@LawrenceLepard on the one market where people hate a discount — and how the great investors exploit exactly that:
"This is how Warren Buffett and other great investors have beaten the markets. They're willing to understand what something is fundamentally worth. And when it becomes cheap relative to
what it's fundamentally worth, they buy it."
His yardstick for Bitcoin is the power law model — "96% correlation with the data since the time Bitcoin was launched" — which currently puts the median value around $134,000, against a market price near $58,000.
And the sizing rule he gives friends: "buy a number that if it goes down 50%, rather than freaking out and saying I made a mistake, you'll think to yourself: no, this was on sale. I want to buy some more."
Translation: the discipline isn't predicting the bottom. It's having a model of worth before the discount shows up — because without one, every sale looks like something's wrong, and every rally looks like proof. His model, his numbers, his call.
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$ETH vs. $BTC is about to break a 4-year long downtrend.
The main reason for this is Copper vs. Gold.
That one broke a 4-year downtrend earlier in February, and as #Crypto# takes some time to catch up with the other markets, it's likely going to happen that $ETH vs. $BTC will breakout from here.
The reason I'm referring to this chart is the fact that I'm looking at MA's on the weekly timeframe.
- Copper vs. Gold has been downtrending for four years and has been breaking above it recently.
The reason that #Altcoins# have suffered for so long hasn't got much to do with crypto as a whole, mostly it has something to do with the macroeconomic playing field.
It's been absolutely terrible and as the business cycle starts to pick up, it's time to be longing into riskier assets like #Crypto#.
- $ETH vs. $BTC on the weekly timeframe has been downtrending for four years straight.
It hasn't been breaking out of the downtrend as of yet, but it's a matter of time.
The primary reason for that is that the markets are lagging behind on Copper/Gold.
Everytime Copper vs. Gold have seen a bottom and start breaking their trend into an upwards trend, it's taking 3-6 months before $ETH vs. $BTC follows through.
As this breakout on Copper vs. Gold has already been happening in Q1 of this year, it's simply a matter of weeks until Ethereum will do the exact same, dragging the markets for #Crypto# further upwards.
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$ETH is back at 0.03 vs. $BTC.
Matter of time until the #Altcoins# are following through.
Which ones will start first?
- DEX tokens like $UNI.
- DeFi tokens like $AAVE, $LDO, $MORPHO.
"I bought some #Bitcoin# a couple days ago. I'll probably buy some more today."
@LawrenceLepard runs a sound money fund. This week he's been buying MicroStrategy — and his reasoning cuts both ways:
"MicroStrategy is a leveraged play on Bitcoin... I own a lot more Bitcoin than I own MicroStrategy."
"MicroStrategy is going to be absolutely fine if Bitcoin continues to go up the way it has historically over five-year periods. If Bitcoin fails, MicroStrategy is going to fail and it's going to fail faster and sooner."
Everyone was shouting that the markets continued to fall, but smart investors decide to stack more sats in these regions.
Why wouldn't you? It's the best time to do so, as the sentiment on $BTC is the worst I've seen in a long time.
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"The government system is set up whereby it has to continually dilute the currency to keep it going. And that really represents a theft of the earnings and productivity of the middle to lower classes."
Lawrence Lepard (@LawrenceLepard) wrote The Big Print. He's spent his career studying monetary debasement and he came on to explain why they can never stop printing, and what that means for Bitcoin at $60K.
His call, in his own words: "I think Bitcoin could go up three x in the next two years. Let's say it's 60 round numbers at 60 today. My working model is kind of two years out, we'll be at 180."
We cover:
- Why in a credit-based system they're trapped: "you have to grow credit and you have to grow the money supply, or else the whole thing collapses"
- Why he says the Fed is "gaslighting us" and what they can't admit
- Gold ran 67% last year while Bitcoin lagged. Why he thinks that lag gets followed by "severe outperformance"
- The scale: Bitcoin at ~$1.3T, gold at ~$30T, ~$1,000T of global financial assets
- Why he calls Bitcoin "monetary debasement insurance," not a trade
- The 10–20% allocation question, and why he says you'd regret not having it
- "The Big Print": the two we've already had, and the one he says is still coming
That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest cases I've heard for why the currency has to keep getting diluted.
Thanks to Lawrence for coming on @new_era_finance.
Thanks for @okxdutch for being our partner for the show.
Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:21 – Investing in MicroStrategy: A Contrarian View
10:05 – Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy
20:14 – Bitcoin vs. Gold
24:01 – What’s Causing the Bitcoin Sell-Off?
29:02 – AI, Economic Growth and the Federal Reserve
32:34 – Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Economic Discontent
40:41 – Bitcoin and the Case for Sound Money
43:54 – Could Hyperinflation Become a Reality?
47:50 – Navigating Volatility and Liquidity Crises
55:51 – What Inflation Data Really Tells Us
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#Bitcoin# continues to hold above the crucial 21-Day and 50-Day MA's.
This is a strong signal for the markets to be betting on the long side of this asset, however, it's still a little fragile.
I'd much prefer to see a strong move to $66,000-67,000 over the next 1-3 days to see a continuous bid coming in.
Wednesday: FOMC meeting, usually a risk-off appetite prior to the event and then a risk-on appetite after.
If $67,000 breaks, the path towards $73,000-75,000 seems imminent.
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There are only a few charts that are currently showing a case of being into an uptrend.
$AAVE is one of them.
It's currently resting above the 21-Day MA and 50-Day MA.
Given that this is taking place, it's very easy: just buy the dip and trade the long side of this asset.
It's currently at $101, however, the next breakout will likely extend this rally towards $125-140.
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