Whether I buy a call or a call spread mostly comes down to how expensive the vol is. When vols are elevated, the calls are just expensive. So I'd cheapen that up with a call spread, selling a strike up where I think the stock's going to struggle to get through anyway. When vol's cheap relative to where it's been, the outright call starts to make more sense, as long as the stock isn't realising much less. You're not overpaying for the move, and you keep all the upside if it really goes. Case in point, $SMH calls don't look bad for year end which implied vol cheap across the whole term structure.

Trump and Xi meet Sept 24, and the options market is barely flinching. SPY's term structure shows only a modest bump into 9/25, while implied vols stay quiet for Chinese stocks and tariff-sensitive American retailers. What we're watching:

VIX exp is today at 9:30AM EST, with 42% of total VIX contracts rolling off. Positioning remains broadly the same with MM's still short calls, they'll just have about 1/2 the size. Impacts are likely muted given vols tied to FOMC at 2PM.

Correlation (COR1M, candles) vs Oil (CL, blue) oil up = all stock vols going higher which typically occurs into an equity drawdown. The risk here is that people don't believe the "just two more weeks - straight is open" headlines...

CTAs are apparently massively short bonds: CTAs tripled their underweight/short positions in global bonds a record short per UBS ~$300 million P&L impact for CTAs per 1 bp move in the 10-year Treasury yield You can see similar positioning in the TLT fixed strike vols. This is set to stats-mode, with a 90-day lookback. TLT ATM vol is particularly high (green), with downside strikes at their highs. Conversely, it reads like the call side is being sold hard (red) - that could go bid if rates come down. We'd think a bond short unwind would in turn jack up equities.

🍊 The most lovable delusion in college football? @StephOtey says Tennessee fans might be the most delusional fanbase in the sport... but she means it as a compliment. 😅 Vols fans, is she right? 👀⬇️ #CollegeFootball# #Tennessee# #Vols# #CFB#

Here's Top 10 asset mgrs by 1yr organic growth rate (w at least $5b). NEOS in league of own hence why GS wanted them so bad. Lot of indie ETF firms (aka acquisition targets), incl Amplify, Simplify and VolShares at #2#, that's a lot of 2x and crypto. AQR shows MF cos can still grow. Also, Fred Alger, who knew!? Cool note today on this from @DavidCohne