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SpotGamma
@spotgamma
We analyze options flows to see how it drives stock. View our free FlowPatrol report:
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lots of positive gamma support today for SPX and from aggregate single stocks.
$SPX $SPY Question: Do you buy puts when you get scared? at lows? Most of the time thats a bad idea. f you have @spotgamma you can see the purple below. Thats support. Dealers should buy dips.... #conversation# in the trading room 45min ago....."don't buy $SPY put flies down here" wait for #VWAP# retest
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Brent Kochuba of @spotgamma says $NVDA earnings are driving S&P options volatility as traders position for lower rates, with bullish signals emerging in bonds, gold and Bitcoin. $SPX $TLT $GLD $BTC
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Today's SPX 0DTE straddle is a paltry $25/32bps ref 7,670 which implies this AM's PCE is a non-event.
NVDA options are pricing an earnings move of ~5.5%, while the average realized move post-earnings is 7.4% for the past 12 months. That gap is why we're not enthusiastic about shorting NVDA vol. Read our full analysis:
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Truth Social API customers number "in the mid teens"
Today at 2pm EST marks "Iran's Economic D-Day". The SPX is pricing in 33bps ($25.5) of 0DTE movement. 🥱 Not that the 2 should correlate, but interesting none-the-less.
President Trump has dismantled Iran’s military capabilities, destroyed nearly 100 percent of its military factories, and buried its nuclear program. We are now entering the endgame. At dawn begins an economic D-Day — the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary. The Islamic Republic has subsisted by dressing extortion as security guarantees. It has drawn strength from a calculus that regards Iranian retaliation as certain and American enforcement as negotiable. Under President Trump, that era is over. And those who fear the danger of defying Tehran ought not to discount the cost of testing Washington. The President has created the conditions to leverage every agency, every authority and action many assumed we would never summon. Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains the tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.
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$IBIT Bitcoin ETF set record call volume on Wed, with huge volume continuing Thur/Fri. Call Skew rank 98/100 (extreme)
Interesting disclosure from Ken Griffin via @CNBC that they have shed 80% of the SALP portfolio. Super high confidence that this was $45b levered more than 4 to 1 so at least $180b gross. Unwinding that $180b would absolutely have had an impact. Have felt it in the market.
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1-month IV Rank across the top stocks in the S&P500. This, with Core PCE, NVDA ER, JHOLD coming up. I'm not saying traders are wrong, but if they are then vol upside has a long way to go.
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Huge $GLD call buying the last few weeks, nearing highs from Jan when gold broke $5,000
Talked about $TSLA y-day during @SpotGamma member's webinar .. potential rip to the upside with available negative gamma and a strong gap target. Bullish flow led the way with strong call buying on the open and modest put support after.
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Today's OPEX for the S&P500 is much smaller than a quarterly. This is likely less impactful with big events next week. For single stocks, particularly Mag 7s & top tech, its a large expiration.
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Despite $QQQ -3% this week, traders remain in a bullish stance with Skew Rank of 70. IV Rank for QQQ specifically is high, at 35, due to NVDA/PCE/JHOLE next week. IWM & SPY IV Rank is now ~13
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Nomura flagged $IWM puts in case of a credit-related equity selling. Here you see over the last week calls skew is coming down with puts up a bit. Overall, though IWM options are cheap: IV Rank of just 3!
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on @CNBC this am discussing $SPCX lockup today & why $150 is short term resistance
Joined @spotgamma on the show this morning for an educational discussion around volatility, dispersion, correlation, options positioning and VIX expiration. Always good to talk with Brent about Options. Watch here:
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he killed his own years ago vol
Why is Strategy selling bitcoin? MSTR's volatility surface answered months ago: the call skew that funded the machine is gone. SpotGamma breaks it down.
PSA: VIX exp at 9:30AM EST be weary of unusual ES/cash moves near that time. ~42% of total VIX contracts expire today, with the 16 strike holding the largest near-spot interest. VIX now marked near 15.5
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Equity traders are still leaning heavily into calls across top stocks as you can see by the concentration of points in the lower right quadrant. This judges 1-month 25 delta call IV vs put i=IV.
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