Latest podcast features Alec Litowitz, the Founder of Magnetar Capital and now the Founder and CIO of QStar Capital. Alec is a tremendous investor and thinker on markets and the author of "The Adaptability Quotient", a book that details his framework for decision-making under uncertainty. Our conversation covers a lot of ground! Apple Podcast: Spotify: YouTube Video:

Bucket shops 101 "In the first place, you didn't buy or sell stock. You didn't buy 100 shares of Erie to hold or to sell at a profit... You made a wager on the price, just as you might have done on the outcome of a football game." "You could buy on a margin of one per cent. That meant that if you had twenty dollars you could buy one hundred shares of a stock selling at twenty... If the price dropped to nineteen and seven-eighths you were wiped out automatically." "The margin was so small that the slightest wiggle against you wiped you out. The shop just took your money. It was a mathematical certainty that you'd lose." "The bucket shops... would see that there was a large (long ) interest in some stock. They would combine and (sell) a few thousand shares of that stock on the Real Exchange... and run the price (down) a point or two. That was enough to wipe out all the margins of the customers who were (long)" These quotes are from 1923. Perps are not innovative.

Here's my current view on HYPE. Been working on it for a month or so now and still have more questions than answers. Always learning. My view is HYPE price is a function of 1. growth in global trading volumes in general =V Which is composed of crypto volume growth =VC Trad FI volume growth = VT 2. Share of trading volume = S and correspondingly SC and ST Given the HYPE protocol it's pretty easy to make a bull case for say $400 based on both V and S growth. At $400 further upside seems highly limited in that Hyperliquid would have so much share that further upside is impossible (something like 100x of current revenues) yet the price increase would result in basically flat net coins outstanding or a deflationary inflationary equilibrium. So I get the bull case. As of today my assessment is VC growth expectations are radically too high. VT growth is boring Hyper liquid share of SC is pretty darn big already Hyper liquid share or ST is almost nonexistent so does represents real opportunity. However ST currently is NOT in anyway relevant to tradfi in any meaningful way and is basically for crypto native tradfi tourists and bucket shop customers wanting high leverage and non regular trading hours trading. I see no chance that the bucket shop customer base is durable and sustainable nor is it a sizable when compared to the overall market volumes and never will be. I see high barriers and competitive and regulatory headwinds for ST during regular trading hours AND willingness from existing tradfi vested interest to evolve and meet after trading hours trading volumes so I am very very bearish relative to expectations of real ST market share growth for hyper liquid At mid 70's I think HYPE is a call option. If none of the ST gains are made the existing volumes support a 30 price. This is where I wanted to buy PURR and missed it. So it's a call option trading for 40 that could be worth 330 or zero. (Meaning it falls from 70's to 30's if is a dud). Is that a good buy? Risk forty to make 330. Meh. Would I short it. Nah it's not crazy. I'd love to buy at 35 in the next bear market or short at 100 in a blow off top speculative frenzy even if that occurs in a long term bull trend to 400. For now no position. Continuing to get smarter (still mostly dumb as I'm sure I will be told as soon as I press send). Innovative disruptive things are worth watching regardless of their future. So I am doing that

NEW: At dinner after day one of his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh told his 18 colleagues he was launching five task forces to rethink how the Fed reads the economy. Chris Waller asked what the point was. Name who's on them, he said, and I'll tell you what they'll say.