WTI has held the same rising trendline for 121 days. Three times it fell to the line, and three times a Hormuz threat sent it higher. July 6: $68.55. Two days later, Trump threatened a Hormuz blockade. WTI rose 34.5% by July 23. August 5: $75.22. Two days later, Hormuz tanker traffic stalled. WTI rose 21.0% by September 2. October 7: $88.28. The next day, Iran stepped up tanker attacks. WTI rose 17.9% by October 30. Overnight, Iran's IRGC said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz. WTI is down 3% and back on the line. One difference this time: it's the day after the midterms.

WTI Midland stays competitive as Atlantic freight surges Freight has surged across the Atlantic Basin, with TD25 now close to WS1000. Even so, WTI Midland still screens competitively into Europe. A wider Brent-WTI spread is helping offset the freight hit, while tight European light sweet supply continues to support demand for US barrels. The bigger question is how long that can hold if freight stays this elevated and more Atlantic Basin supply starts competing for the same refinery demand. Real-time tools to enable faster, better decisions: