WTI has held the same rising trendline for 121 days. Three times it fell to the line, and three times a Hormuz threat sent it higher.
July 6: $68.55. Two days later, Trump threatened a Hormuz blockade. WTI rose 34.5% by July 23.
August 5: $75.22. Two days later, Hormuz tanker traffic stalled. WTI rose 21.0% by September 2.
October 7: $88.28. The next day, Iran stepped up tanker attacks. WTI rose 17.9% by October 30.
Overnight, Iran's IRGC said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz. WTI is down 3% and back on the line.
One difference this time: it's the day after the midterms.