Yes, these next six months are historically quite bullish, but when Congress is fully to the Democrats it turns out the S&P 500 does even better. Never lower six months later (11 for 11 higher) and up 16.5% on average.

Yes, there’s a bubble in AI. But what should semiconductor stocks be worth after it bursts? On Nov. 6, SOX traded at 13.7× forward earnings, roughly half the 25.5–28.4× observed near the 2002 dot-com bottom. Now suppose semiconductor companies earn 20% less than analysts currently forecast. If the index stays where it is, the P/E would rise to 17.1×, close to its 2011–2023 average. Meanwhile, major suppliers are still growing profits and guiding for higher revenue. Our latest publication breaks down the underlying math. $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD Read the full analysis:

Yes, Liwei is a semiconductor permabull. I’ve dug through plenty of data, and I still think today’s market pricing is a joke. If SaaS is yesterday’s business and AI is the future, explain this: five AI suppliers average just 16.8× forward earnings, while five mature software companies command 15.3×. A potentially world-changing technological revolution gets a miserable 10% premium. NVIDIA’s forward P/E is below Workday’s. Broadcom and TSMC trade below ServiceNow. If AI really is going to eat software’s lunch, and its suppliers have stronger earnings power, that tiny premium makes no sense. Of course semiconductors are cyclical. But before getting even more bearish at these levels, work out how far AI companies’ expected earnings will actually fall. Some media outlets keep shouting that “the AI bubble is bursting.” Yet I think the inflated optimism behind those bubble valuations has already been squeezed out. As retail investors, we don’t need to keep scaring ourselves.

Yes, The Cheesecake Factory is kitschy, gaudy and over-the-top. Yes, it transcends the constraints of both diet and design. That’s why it’s such a juggernaut. Read more: 🔗