Tech Taiwan reports: TSMC’s CoPoS is expected to enter mass production in the first half of 2029. Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO), a Samsung Group affiliate, along with Japan’s Toppan and other substrate manufacturers across Japan and South Korea, have all joined the race to develop glass-core substrates and have recently begun submitting engineering samples to TSMC. TSMC never even considered glass interposers.

Liwei having weathered the Taiwan market for years, I dropped a post today right before market opened warning everyone to trim optical positions. Really hope my followers caught my post. Still structurally bullish for the long term, but you’ve got to survive the short-term noise first. Hope those who follow me managed to dodge a bullet today. $shunsin ( $foci ( $MssCorp (

Intel $INTC EMIB Supply Chain Flip-Chip Assembly Bumping Powertech Technology $6239.TW Amkor Technology $AMKR Die Bond ASMPT $0522.HK Kulicke & Soffa $KLIC Laser Marking E&R Engineering $8027.TWO Plasma Cleaning E&R Engineering $8027.TWO EMIB Substrate IC Substrate Ibiden $4062.T Unimicron $3037.TWO AT&S $ATS.VI Shinko ABF Film Lamination Ajinomoto $2802.T Eternal Precision Mechanics $7795.TWO Bridge Die Bond Toray $3402.T Electroplating ASMPT NEXX Laser via Drilling Mitsubishi Electric $6503.T Baking Oven Group Up $6664.TWO Other Components Silicon Capacitor AP Memory $6531.TW Samsung Electro-Mechanics $009150.KS Silicon Capacitor Foundry Powerchip $6770.TW United Microelectronics $UMC Winbond $2344.TW Information derived from Nomura Securities, but I included couple names in the supply chain I believe they missed - AT&S, Ajinomoto

AI boom and cost pressures: ASE rumored to raise advanced packaging prices by another 20% As AI applications drive semiconductor demand strongly and advanced packaging capacity grows tight, both leading players and small to midsize packaging and test houses are now running at nearly full utilization, and the companies involved are aggressively expanding capacity in response. With rising raw material costs, higher long term investment costs, and supply shortages all converging, word has spread across the industry that ASE Holdings (3711) has once again adjusted its packaging quotes, with the increase exceeding 20 percent. The market expects other packaging and test houses to follow with successive hikes that reflect the current overheated conditions. (ASE declined to comment on the market rumors.) In the wave of advanced packaging led by AI, ASE Holdings plays an important driving role. As TSMC (2330) struggles to keep its CoWoS capacity up with demand and the share of outsourcing keeps climbing, the on substrate packaging (oS) and wafer test (CP) volumes that ASE takes on continue to grow. According to industry sources, this round of price increases spans advanced packaging such as CoWoS and FoCoS, includes a top tier US customer, and reaches a maximum increase of more than 20 percent. On the pricing strategy, ASE Holdings Chief Operating Officer Tien Wu responded in a media interview right after this year's (2027) shareholders meeting that price increases are a very sensitive matter and can broadly be viewed across a few dimensions. The first reflects rising raw material prices, and increases of this kind have their own necessity. The second reflects growing investment amounts and considerations around investment costs. Wu added that ASE's capital expenditure was previously around 2 billion dollars a year, rose to 5.3 billion dollars last year (2025), and has been raised to 8.5 billion dollars this year, with further increases not ruled out going forward. This too is part of the cost structure. As for taking a pricing stance in response to market supply and demand imbalances, he said views differ from person to person, and the company would prefer to leave room for the management team's own judgment. Wu also stressed that running a business cannot be about the short term alone but must look to the long term. Data centers are doing very well right now, but the company must also think about investment in the next wave of applications such as the AI real economy, automotive electronics, and humanoids. Price adjustments therefore have to balance the future together with close cooperation with customers, customer trust, and long term investment confidence. $ASX

I'm posting this prediction now so I can quote it later. There has been a significant breakthrough in architecture - specifically around memory efficiency - not by one of the big labs, but by a team that was spun out of OpenAI (not SSI). They will probably announce it soon.

$NVDA Vera CPU partner list from GTC Taipei. Early Adopters: OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceXAI Cloud: $NBIS $ORCL $CRWV Manufacturing: $DELL $HPE $SMCI $SNX Taiwan ODMs: Foxconn, Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron, Gigabyte, ASUS, Compal, Pegatron, Inventec, MSI

“Taiwan won’t matter in 18 months” is what happens when software people mistake civilization for a SaaS product. It's one of the most clueless takes I've heard on this platform in months and that's saying something. Yes, America has semiconductor fabs. Mostly old ones. Really old. Taiwan has the fabs that matter: The ones that make every single chip for NVIDIA and Apple and every damn Android and iPhone on Earth and even most of the 1500 or so chips that go in your truck or car. Without TSMC these companies simply do not exist. Not kind of struggling. I mean "wiped off the freaking face of the Earth and unable to produce a single product" level gone. As in "worth zero instantly." Taiwan has: - Multiple leading-edge giga-fabs - The *overwhelming* majority of advanced AI chip production - Dominant advanced packaging capacity - Dense supplier clustering - Decades of accumulated yield/process knowledge and the most skilled workforce on Earth to run it all The US still barely has frontier-scale advanced packaging online. Much of it is literally still under construction and won’t ramp until years from now. Momos hear “we’re only 1–2 nanometers away” and think semiconductors are just transistor geometry. No freaking way. Sheer idiocy. The real moat is: - Yields - Packaging - HBM integration - Substrates - Tooling - Tacit manufacturing expertise - Workforce density - Supply chain coordination TSMC is not “a fab.” It is one of the most sophisticated industrial ecosystems ever created by humanity. And no, a tiny Neuralink surgery robot does not mean America can magically reproduce decades of semiconductor manufacturing concentration in 18 months. Reality is not a podcast episode. Taiwan remains strategically critical for years, likely a decade+. This is like saying: “We’re 18 months away from replacing the global oil system because we built a nice electric bike.”