Crude should be about $200 on standard inventory models corrected for China and SPRs around the world
And rates should be about 10%.
The market says it can’t come to that because it would break the AI bubble,
That’s like saying I can’t go broke because it would be distasteful
Crude +2.969MM, Exp. -690K
Gasoline -1.686MM
Distillates -428K
Cushing +2.266MM
Production -5kbpd
SPR drained by another 405K to 285MM barrels, lowest since 1982
Crude had first close below 5 SMA, but it also was a 3 bar breakout mode (which trumps retracement trades). But it failed to get range expansion to downside, and is now a solid example of a bracketing market (false breakouts up and down as it consolidates.)