Regarding $NBIS earnings results:
To show you how fast they're growing... from Q2 to Q3:
Revenue: $582.3M -> $980.8M (+68% QoQ)
Adjusted EBITDA: $236.2M -> $465.8M (+97% QoQ)
AI cloud adj. EBITDA margin: 49.7% -> 53.2%
Net Income: −$190.4M -> −$37.5M
ARR has reached $6.4B at the end of Sep. In terms of management commentary:
- Since start of Q3, Nebius signed $12B+ of new contracts
- Average GPU pricing rose 20%+ sequentially, payback shortened from 22M -> 19M
- On Q3 deals, prepayments covered 100% of associated capex, up from 50–60% in Q2 (insane for financing)
- Contract value per MW exceeded $25M+ from Q3 up from ~$20M Q2
- 5GW contracted power year end
With $10B of committed customer prepayments in 2026 and $17B-$20B in 2027. Now, prepayments and borrowing against existing contracts covers ~75-85% of 2027 capex.
On subsidiaries:
1. Avride - 250 autonomous vehicles fleet, over 100,000 passenger rides (with companies like $UBER). Fully driverless robotaxi targeted H1 2027.
2. Toloka - Revenue doubled sequentially
3. Enterprise cloud - Databricks and Datadog selected Neibus. Along with a new agreement with Snowflake.
4. Tavily - Over 3M developers now with $IBM post-training a core partner.
5. ClickHouse - Nothing about new secondary valuations, but we can see valuations growing
6. TokenFactory - Contract value grew 17x sequentially
The primary negative I saw was that 2026 guidance is now on the lower end (near ~$3B), due to $MSFT capacity deliveries slipping to Q2 2027.
Apparently there was an execution miss with a third party partner DataOne. Temporary generators were retired amid permitting issues before enough $BE fuel cell capacity came online.
Capex also increased in 2026 from $20B-$25B to $27B, while revising revenue expectations downward.
So near-term unfortunate headwinds kinda reminiscent of AOI earnings; however long term I think Nebius will take care of you.
For 2027 outlook:
- $12-13 billion revenue, capex of $40-45 billion, pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027.
Very operationally bullish, as seen with prepayments covering capex, GPU premiums increasing. Main downside is near-term execution risk from third parties, causing near-term delays and revenue recognition.
Great quarter from Nebius overall.