quit my 9-5 to escape the rat race bought crypto for generational wealth exchanges and hardware wallets got hacked ok, "If you’re in crypto pivot to AI" right? learned to vibe code so AI doesn't replace me hostings and clouds get hacked now the AI coding extension got hacked meanwhile my 9-5 friend chilling

I was supposed to have escaped the rat race a few months ago, but my plan shifted unexpectedly. I was so close to freeing myself from the matrix, but somehow, greed overcame me, my golden handcuffs got bigger, and I decided to stay in the matrix. I failed myself, I didn’t do it. Money will mess with your head. At times it will trick you into thinking it’s the most important thing. I was tricked.

A close and old friend died unexpectedly at the age of 32 a week ago. You realise in the rat race how little people care for each other. How flippant we are about nurturing not just our own but other peoples lives. Yet life is truly so fragile. Many of us have come close to death and experienced loved ones pass; it’s a bond every one of us share unless we unfortunately die young. So these deaths although tragic showcase how lucky you are to have lived and experienced life. Fight hard, be kind, make it count. Care for yourself, your loved ones, and even someone you might not know. Have a great weekend.

Why am I doing this? 1. My portfolio companies often ask for investor intros 2. Good intros make companies like you more 3. Traditional VCs suck more than ever lately and I don’t like introing them to companies The more I can help these companies escape the VC rat race, the better :)

China macro is turning into an extreme dispersion trade. Headline GDP is becoming almost useless.. Japanification, but with geographic arbitrage both domestically and internationally is my closest mental model for what comes next Maybe this is what the last inning of industrial and geopolitical catch-up looks like: hyper-competitiveness abroad, household retrenchment at home. Export strength no longer translates cleanly into household income or confidence; youth unemployment remains elevated at ~16%, even after excluding students. China may be entering a long cycle of Japanification, but with much more room for geographic arbitrage, both within China and across its supply chains. Externally, China looks almost unstoppable: June exports +27% YoY, H1 high-tech manufacturing +13.3%, IC manufacturing +67.3%. Manufacturing PMI crawled back above 50. AI-linked demand and high-end exports are doing the heavy lifting. But some of this demand is borrowed from the future. AI capex is partly a game of musical chairs and future capacity lock-in, while the export surge contains tariff front-loading. Neither is a durable substitute for domestic consumption. Inside China, the picture is almost inverted. Retail sales fell 0.6% YoY in May and grew only 1.0% in June. H1 fixed-asset investment fell 5.7%, property investment fell 18%, and new-home sales value fell 13.6%. The price chain does not look good either: producer input prices +6.4%, factory-gate prices +4.1%, CPI only +1.0%. Costs are moving downstream much faster than consumer pricing power. Many downstream firms have to absorb the gap through thinner margins, intensifying the rat race. Even consumption itself is dispersing. Urban retail was -0.9% in May vs rural +1.5%; in June, +0.8% vs +2.1%. But rural outlets are only ~14% of total retail, and the rural print is policy-sensitive, wont be able to carry the entire economy Japan after the 1980s bubble offers a strong parallel: stagnation from the early 1990s, then persistent deflation from the late 1990s into the early 2010s. But China has a continental shock absorber Japan never had at this scale: a vast interior homeland where housing and daily life are far cheaper, while infra and digital services have narrowed the quality of life gap with tier 1 cities. The option to leave tier 1 cities and return home has become a popular choices for many, this can lower household burn rates and may soften the social transmission of stagnation Writing this, NF’s Hope started playing in my head: Thirty years of running, thirty years of searching Thirty years of hurting, thirty years of pain For China, make it almost fifty. Almost fifty years of running from scarcity since Reform and Opening, searching for modernity, and avg citizens absorbing the pain of remaking an entire society at impossible speed Maybe that is the eternal paradox of industrial catch-up: a country can arrive frontier before its people feel they have.