SPV even single layer, are no match for liquid stock, 2 other data pt from my own book/friends circle 1️⃣ Invested in Twitter '22 Privatization: Looking at ~2.5x gross at the $1.5T SpaceX IPO 2️⃣ Invested in xAI '25 SPV ($120B entry): with dilution/fee and all that, i will be lucky to clear 2x net ... 😭 Meanwhile, NVDA/TSMC and the high-conviction semi stack have absolutely smoked these returns, minus the carry, the lock-ups, and the SPV distribution hassle ..

Was looking through old chats from 10 years ago about Cerebras’s Series B .. such a full circle. in 2017, if you bet on GenAI you were a "vibe investor" - Academia hated on Transformers for not being "elegant" enough for CV (RIP ViT/DETR haters). The NLP scientists called decoder-only models a dead end. 2017 was one of those quiet historical forks, no one in the industry grasped how deeply it would shape what became the Fourth Industrial Revolution Now, the same people are begging for H100s. Meanwhile, Cerebras is still fighting the physics of tiny SRAM and no HBM. Hardware is hard; being right early is harder. and ofc Cerebras didn’t feel obvious to me at all Looking back, my judgment was full of the constraints of that moment: I wasn’t sure Nvidia could become the backbone of hyperscale AI datacenters. Google still looked like the kind of company that would keep its best infrastructure for itself. And Cerebras’s wafer-scale engine felt, to me, like a very expensive piece of hype. That’s the thing about living through history in real time..the future rarely sounds loud when it first arrives. 2017 to 2026 was AI’s version of Hemingway: slowly, then suddenly all at once. And four years earlier, 2014 to 2023 was crypto’s The first 7 years of every exponential industry are usually just a long muted prologue, then last 3 tear through the world as a full symphony That’s still the most intoxicating thing about spending the last 15 years around frontier tech: getting to touch history in draft form, watching founders stay faithful while lost inside it, and watching random choices separate people from fortunes they couldn’t even imagine yet Slowly but surely, suddenly all at once

That premise is logically flawed but narratively strong. unless incentivized/harness otherwise, agent's only goal is efficiency. They choose whichever rail CC or stablecoin, has the least friction Winners like Stripe and Alipay will just abstract the choice away by integrating both

"I'd rather take existential risk in a frontier than emotional death in a perfectly stable system" the most powerful line from a non-standard life path Japanese friend he just shared. we were discussing why Japan is the "most optimistic version of the dystopian capitalism"

Have been thru so many "existential threat" moments in crypto, every time the ride is getting less existential - First shock: Mt Gox. I was so stunned didnt even feel it. My net worth in crypto wasnt huge in absolute terms, still massive for a fresh grad - Second grill: the Bitfinex hack. Thought it was the end. Instead, the redemption token + creditor unity became an epic kind of birth story for Tether - Post-ICO annihilation: the worst pain. Net worth down bad. Learned the hard lesson on alts, and started Primitive Ventures deep in the 2018 bear - March 2020: the most intense. If BitMEX hadn’t unplugged, we might’ve been cooked as an industry. But mentally it hurt less because the 2018- 2019 grind and later global Covid escape exp trained my brain for the new baseline of chaos - 2022 FTX collapse: insane, cinematic. We pulled funds when we started smelling smoke around SBF so dodged that bullet. and it reinforced a lesson I keep re-learning: founders leak signal constantly if you know how to read behavior Every cycle leaves scar tissue. And in crypto, scar tissue becomes anti fragility: better priors, faster reflexes, cleaner counterparty rules. Crypto people have front run a lot of the big socioeconomic shifts: fighting bot farms before “AI” was mainstream; demanding data sovereignty before prompt injection and narrative manipulation by llms. become opsec paranoid and off the grid knowing the future of surveillance state. We also got a high potent dose of human incentive loopholes and behavioral bias injected into our vein so that we learned the hard way early There's no compression algorithm for experience. Time is the only leverage nobody can liquidate. See you on the other side of this one, fellow life soldiers.

. @opinionlabsxyz flips @Polymarket for the first time? 🤯 Polymarket won the 2024 Election cycle, what's the growth catalyst Opinion lab is aiming for this year? @ForrestOLAB hinted on a lot of korean side development (even esports betting is huge there) and the "new game" 🤔 last time we met, gonna keep a close eye on it